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The UK economy
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
• The budget was expansionary, bringing about a cumulative fiscal loosening of 1.5-2 per cent of GDP over the next four years.
• As a consequence, the pound and long-term interest rates will be higher, while immediate pressure to raise short-term rates is reduced.
• After a further quarter point increase in the repo rate to 6.25 per cent, we expect a pause in monetary tightening for the rest of the year.
• Sterling's strength will hit manufacturing which will grow by only 1.2 per cent in 2000, compared with overall GDP growth of 2.8 per cent.
• Despite continuing low claimant unemployment and earnings growth of 5.5 per cent in 2000, the labour market is not over-stretched.