Last year again proved a disappointing one for the UK economy with GDP declining by around 3/4 per cent, although activity does appear to have stabilised over the course of the year with some continuing weakness in domestic demand in the fourth quarter being offset by more favourable trading conditions in export markets. Since our last forecast in November little has happened to change our view as to how the economy will develop over the coming months. Domestic activity should be buttressed by the recent relaxation in monetary policy, allowing a moderate export-led recovery to get underway. However, conflicting signals as to the state of the economy may appear for some while since it is to be expected that the full impact of the recent reductions in interest rates will take some time to materialise.