Economic recovery was checked during the summer and unemployment began to rise again both in North America and in Western Europe. The setback seems, however, to have been due to a large extent to stock movements and will probably prove temporary. We expect total real output in the OECD area to increase by about 52 per cent this year and by 4 1/2–5 per cent in 1977. In 1978 it seems likely that growth will be a good deal slower, notably in the United States. Our preliminary forecast is 3–4 per cent.