Consumers' real incomes and their expenditure are rising quite fast, the slowdown in price inflation unaccompanied yet by any slowdown in wage inflation. But the increase in investment demand has slackened and exports have stagnated since early last year. For the past 12 months or more total output has grown comparatively slowly as a result. It was probably about 1 ½ per cent higher in the second quarter than a year before. Manufacturing production may not have increased at all. These developments are broadly in line with the forecasts we were making a year ago.