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Prospects for the UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Simon Kirby ,
Robert Metz  and
Rebecca Riley
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Abstract

The economy continued to grow faster than its trend rate in the first half of 2004. Preliminary estimates show GDP rising by 0.9 per cent in the second quarter of the year. Measured on an annualised basis, this brings the average rate of growth since the middle of last year to 3.6 per cent. It is our view that this brings the economy very close to capacity. We expect the output gap to average 0.1 per cent of trend GDP this year (see chart 1).

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 189 , July 2004 , pp. 37 - 56
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Marks and Spencer plc, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (Europe) Ltd, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd, Rio Tinto plc, Unilever plc and Watson Wyatt LLP.

References

Barrell, R.Kirby, S. and Riley, R. (2003), ‘Changing the inflation target’, National Institute Economic Review, 185, pp. 50–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, J. (2003), ‘Should we be surprised by the unreliability of output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Euro Zone’, National Institute Discussion Paper No. 225.Google Scholar