Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jkksz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-03T15:14:12.245Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Models of Inflation in the United Kingdom: an Evaluation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

S.G.B. Henry ,
M.C. Sawyer  and
P. Smith
S.G.B. Henry
Affiliation:
University College London
M.C. Sawyer
Affiliation:
University College London
P. Smith
Affiliation:
Southampton University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In this article re-estimates are made of some of the main econometric models of inflation that have been proposed for the UK. Primarily these are wage inflation models, though reference is also made in the article to price equations. Estimates for each model are provided for a number of different post-war samples to investigate the reliability of each model and their adequacy in the light of recent high rates of inflation. The results for most of the models we consider are generally negative, except a wage inflation equation based on the hypothesis of a target rate of increase in real net earnings desired by workers which shows a great deal of consistency over the different sample periods.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 77 , August 1976 , pp. 60 - 71
Copyright
Copyright © 1976 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bowers, J.K., Cheshire, P.C., and Webb, A.E.L., ‘The Change in the Relation between Unemployment and Earnings Increases: A Review of some Possible Explanations’, National Institute Economic Review, No. 54, November 1970.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Desai, M.J., ‘The Phillips Curve: A Revisionist Interpretation’, Economica, Vol. 42, 1975.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Desai, M.J., Applied Econometric Analysis, Phillip Allan, 1976.Google Scholar
Dogas, D. and Hines, A.G., ‘Trade Unions and Wage Inflation in the UK: a critique of Purdy and Zis’, Applied Economics, Vol. 7, 1975.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisher, G., ‘Comment on Parkin’ in Current Economic Problems, Parkin, J. M., and Nobay, R., (eds.), 1975.Google Scholar
Friedman, M., ‘The Role of Monetary Policy’, American Economic Review, Vol. 58, 1968.Google Scholar
Gillion, C., ‘Wage-rates, earnings and wage-drift’, National Institute Economic Review, No. 46, November 1968.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Godfrey, L., ‘The Phillips Curve: Incomes Policy and Trade Union Effects’, in (13), 1971.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henry, S.G.B., ‘Employment and Manhours in British Manufacturing’, University College, London, Mimeo, 1976.Google Scholar
Henry, S.G.B., ‘The Koyck Transformation and Adaptive Expectations: A Note’, Economica, Vol. 41, 1974.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henry, S.G.B. and Sawyer, M.C., ‘Wage Inflation and Labour Hoarding’, University College, London, Mimeo, 1974.Google Scholar
Hines, A.G., ‘Wage Inflation in the United Kingdom 1893-1961’, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 31, 1964.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, H.G. and Nobay, A.R., The Current Inflation, MacMillan, London, 1971.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, J., ‘A model of Wage Determination under Bilateral Monopoly’, Economic Journal, Vol. 82, 1972.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, J. and Timbrell, M., ‘Empirical Tests of a Bargaining Theory of Wage Rate Determination’, Manchester School, Vol. 41, 1973.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knowles, K.G.J. and Winsten, C.B., ‘Can Unemployment Explain Changes in Wages?’, Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Statistics, 1959.Google Scholar
Laidler, D.E.W., ‘The Phillips Curve, Expectations and Incomes Policy’, in (13), 1971.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laidler, D.E.W., ‘The Influence of Money on Real Income and Inflation: A Simple Econometric Model’, Manchester School, Vol. 41, 1973.Google Scholar
Laidler, D.E.W., ‘The Current Inflation: Explanations and Policies’, National Westminster Bank Review, 1972.Google Scholar
Laidler, D.E.W. and Parkin, J.M., ‘Inflation—A Survey’, Economic Journal, Vol. 85, 1975.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipsey, R.G., ‘The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom 1861-1957: a further analysis’, Economica, Vol. 27, 1960.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipsey, R.G. and Parkin, J.M., ‘Incomes Policy: a reappraisal’, Economica, Vol. 37, 1970.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parkin, J.M., ‘Incomes policy: some further results on determination of the rate of change of wages’, Economica, Vol. 37, 1970.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parkin, J.M., Sumner, M. and Ward, R., ‘The Effects of Excess Demand, Generalised Expectations and Wage-Price Controls on Wage Inflation in the UK’, University of Manchester Inflation Workshop Discussion Paper 7402, 1974.Google Scholar
Phelps, E.S., ‘Money wage dynamics and labour market equilibrium’, in Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, Norton, New York, 1970.Google Scholar
Phillips, A.W., ‘The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom 1861-1957’, Economica, Vol. 25, 1958.Google Scholar
Purdy, D.L. and Zis, G., ‘Trade Unions and Wage Inflation in the UK: a reappraisal’, in Essays in Modern Economics, Parkin, J. M., (ed.), Longman, 1973.Google Scholar
Sargan, J.D., ‘Wages and Prices in the United Kingdom: A Study in Econometric Methodology’, in Hart, P. E., Mills, G., and Whitaker, J. K., (eds.), Econometric Analysis for National Economic Planning, Butterworth, London, 1964.Google Scholar
Taylor, J., ‘The Behaviour of Unemployment and unfilled Vacancies: An Alternative View’, Economic Journal, Vol. 82,1972.Google Scholar
Turner, H.A., Jackson, D. and Wilkinson, F., Do Trade Unions Cause Inflation?, Department of Applied Economics Occasional Paper, Cambridge University Press, 1972.Google Scholar
Wallis, K.F., ‘Wages, prices and incomes policies: some comments’, Economica, Vol. 38, 1971.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

A correction has been issued for this article:

Errata: August Review, 1976