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Medium-Term Projections on Alternative Policy Assumptions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Abstract

Given assumptions about developments in the rest of the world, the NIESR model is used to explore how the British economy might develop over the medium term under alternative economic policies. In the first part of the note it is assumed that policies are broadly unchanged. In the second part it is assumed that new policies are introduced along the lines of the programme of economic expansion advocated by the Labour Party.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 118 , November 1986 , pp. 30 - 37
Copyright
Copyright © 1986 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) Exclusive of sales of council houses and spending by corporations about to be privatised.

(1) Errors are probably more likely to be offsetting than reinforcing however, as faster (or slower) growth in the world economy would tend to affect export volumes and real commodity prices in the same direction.

(2) No attempt has been made to project the PSBR because there is no target for asset sales beyond 1989/90.

(3) This section was prepared by Andrew Britton, Rhys Herbert, and Michael Joyce.

(1) We have taken account of the ‘costings’ of Labour ‘commitments’ published by Treasury Ministers, and the Labour Party's comments on them, but we have ignored many of the larger items in those catalogues on the grounds that they are not in fact commitments or that they are unlikely to affect spending during the period with which we are concerned.

(2) ‘Special employment measures and the long-term unemployed’, First Report of the Employment Committee, Session 1985-86, HC 199, January 1986. The Government's reply was published in the Third Report of the Committee in June 1986.

(1) Details of all changes from Model 8 are available from the Institute on request.

(1) See Currie, D. and Hall, S. ‘The exchange rate and the balance of payments’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 115, February 1986.