During 1981 manufacturing output remained virtually flat, with a small further fall in the first two quarters balanced by a very weak recovery in the third and fourth (statistical appendix table 2). By about the middle of the year, virtually all industries had stopped declining, and a few, notably chemicals, metals and motor vehicles, were showing significant increases in output. The slow recovery in output is expected to continue (table 1); the rise of about 2 per cent a year expected in 1982 and 1983 is indeed rather slower than the rate between the two halves of last year. For total industrial production the pattern is similar, but the fall in the first half of the year was greater and the recovery has been slower because construction output has continued to decline; it will lower the growth in total industrial output this year as well.