More recent information confirms the view which we expressed in August that the rapid economic expansion had begun to slow down in the industrial countries by the middle of the year. It now looks indeed as though the change of pace will prove to be rather sharper than we then foresaw. We still expect the rise in OECD countries' aggregate output to be nearly 7 per cent this year, but it may fall to 4-4½ per cent in 1974 (or even less if production is significantly affected by shortage of oil).