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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
It now seems clear that there was no more than marginal growth in the overall output of the OECD countries in the first quarter. Exceptionally severe weather in Europe and in some areas of the US partly explains the sharpness of the deceleration, its effects being most clearly seen in a 5 per cent fall in construction. But though growth in the second quarter was almost certainly faster, it seems equally probable that there was no very marked rebound. For the first half of the year as a whole the annual rate of increase in industrial production, for example, was probably of the order of 1 1/2 per cent. This compares with as much as 3 per cent predicted by OECD in mid-April.
(1) OECD calculations last year suggested that depreciation of the US and Canadian dollars by 20 per cent in the first half of 1985 (involving effective depreciations of about 17 per cent for the US and 7 per cent for Canada) would improve the US annual current balance by $15-20 billion after four years but worsen it by $10 billion in the first year (Economic Outlook 36, December 1984, p. 85).