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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Since we last reported, in May, the economy has moved broadly in line with our expectations then. We now estimate (see notes below) that total output fell by about 2 per cent during the first half of the year and it does not appear to have returned in the recovery months to levels any greater than those achieved last year. Unemployment has however begun to turn up rather more quickly than we had anticipated, rising by an average of 19,000 per month between May and August.
page 15 note (1) Though the pay increases of Local Authority employees are likely to be reflected in rates.
page 16 note (1) This is our definition of the ‘oil deficit’; we think it is a better measure of the UK's ‘share’ of the total deficit of oil importers with the producers than the deficit in petroleum and petroleum products alone. See National Institute Economic Review no. 68, May 1974, page 43.
page 21 note (1) Hawker Siddeley participates privately in the Airbus project with West Germany, France, the Netherlands and Spain. Rolls Royce builds the RB211 engine for the Tristar. Since August 1973 orders and options have risen for the Airbus from 39 to 46 and for the Tristar from 199 to 202.
page 21 note (2) Some, possibly French, participation may emerge at a later date.
page 27 note (1) Davies, S.W., and Scott, T.W.K., ‘Forecasting industrial production’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 66, November 1973.