Although the data for the recent past are still somewhat patchy at the time of writing, a limited turnaround in the non-oil economy can be expected in the third quarter of the year, accompanied by a recovery in North Sea output. We expect oil production in the latter half of the year to be some 10 per cent higher than in the first half, with the reopening of fields following installation of new equipment. Growth in the onshore economy is likely to prove hesitant, with the overall level of output in the second half of the year being little changed from that in the first.