Since last November we have based our forecasts on the assumption that the UK will soon become a full member of the European Monetary System. There has been no change in the official position on entry to confirm or correct that assumption, but recent hints and rumours make clear that it is the right assumption to make. We retain it for this forecast. The actual date of entry is now more likely to be in the first half of next year; a fall in the rate of inflation is seen as a precondition, and it is one which may not now be fulfilled as soon as we had hoped. We assume that some announcement on the ERM is made about the end of the year, permitting an interest-rate cut in the first quarter, followed by formal accession by the second quarter, about the time of the Budget.