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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Unemployment continues to fall; manufacturing output has accelerated; the latest CBI survey reports renewed optimism: clearly the economy is going through a period of reasonably rapid growth. The reasons for this better performance are no doubt manifold, but amongst them we would emphasise the fall in the sterling exchange rate which took place last year, especially against the Deutschemark.
The main part of this chapter describes the current economic situation and the outlook in the short and medium term. This is followed by short notes dealing with some aspects of the domestic economic situation in more detail. The forecasts were prepared by Andrew Britton, Andrew Gurney and Michael Joyce, but they draw on the work of the whole team engaged in macroeconomic analysis and modelbuilding at the Institute.
(1) D. Savage and R. Biswas, ‘An analysis of post-war growth rates and an illustrative long-term projection’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 118, November 1986.
(2) A fuller discussion of the subject is given in Unemployment and labour supply in National Institute Model 8', by C. Trinder and R. Biswas, National Institute Discussion Paper no.112, July 1986.
(3) J. Darby, ‘Fiscal policy and interest rates’, National Institute Economic Review, no.109, August 1984.