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Development of an Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Associated with the Characterization of the Geological Environment: Study on its Applicability in the Tono area

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 March 2011

K. Yanagizawa ,
S. Takeda ,
H. Osawa ,
Y. Suyama ,
H. Takase ,
M. Toida  and
R. Metcalfe
K. Yanagizawa
Affiliation:
Tono Geoscience Center, Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC), Gifu, Japan
S. Takeda
Affiliation:
Horonobe Underground Reserch Center, Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC), Hokkaido, Japan
H. Osawa
Affiliation:
Tono Geoscience Center, Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC), Gifu, Japan
Y. Suyama
Affiliation:
Kajima Technical Research Institute, Kajima Corporation, Tokyo, Japan
H. Takase
Affiliation:
Quintessa Japan, Yokohama, Japan
M. Toida
Affiliation:
Kajima Technical Research Institute, Kajima Corporation, Tokyo, Japan
R. Metcalfe
Affiliation:
Quintessa Japan, Yokohama, Japan
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Abstract

JNC has developed an uncertainty analysis methodology for application to the spatially heterogeneous characteristics of a geological environment. The developed methodology adopts a new approach that identifies all the possible options in concepts and parameter ranges that cannot be excluded in the light of evidence available. This approach enables uncertainties associated with the understanding at a given stage of the site characterization to be made explicit, using probability theory and possibility theory. The uncertainties could be reduced by screening, to exclude concepts and parameter ranges that can be denied in the light of additional evidence obtained in subsequent investigation stages. This paper describes an outline of the developed methodology and its applicability in the Tono area.

Type
Research Article
Information
MRS Online Proceedings Library (OPL) , Volume 932: Symposium – Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management XXIX , 2006 , 126.1
Copyright
Copyright © Materials Research Society 2006

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References

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