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Study on a Decision Making Methodology with Uncertainties in the Selection Process of Preliminary Investigation Areas

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 February 2011

Hiroyuki Tsuchi ,
Toshihiro Seo ,
Richard Metcalfe ,
Kenji Kawano ,
Hiroyasu Takase ,
Andrew Bowden ,
Yasuhiro Suyama ,
Masaru Toida ,
Mitsuaki Furuichi  and
Atsushi Matsumura
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Hiroyuki Tsuchi
Affiliation:
Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan, 1–23, Shiba 4-Chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108–0014, Japan
Toshihiro Seo
Affiliation:
Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan, 1–23, Shiba 4-Chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108–0014, Japan
Richard Metcalfe
Affiliation:
Quintessa Limited, Queen's Tower A 7–707, 2–3–1 Minatomirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama, 220–6007, Japan
Kenji Kawano
Affiliation:
Quintessa Limited, Queen's Tower A 7–707, 2–3–1 Minatomirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama, 220–6007, Japan
Hiroyasu Takase
Affiliation:
Quintessa Limited, Queen's Tower A 7–707, 2–3–1 Minatomirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama, 220–6007, Japan
Andrew Bowden
Affiliation:
Quintessa Limited, Queen's Tower A 7–707, 2–3–1 Minatomirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama, 220–6007, Japan
Yasuhiro Suyama
Affiliation:
Kajima Corporation, 19–1, Tobitakyu, 2-Chome, Chofu-shi, Tokyo, 182–0036, Japan
Masaru Toida
Affiliation:
Kajima Corporation, 19–1, Tobitakyu, 2-Chome, Chofu-shi, Tokyo, 182–0036, Japan
Mitsuaki Furuichi
Affiliation:
Kajima Corporation, 19–1, Tobitakyu, 2-Chome, Chofu-shi, Tokyo, 182–0036, Japan
Atsushi Matsumura
Affiliation:
Dia Consulants Co., Ltd, 2–272–3, Yoshino-cho, Saitama-shi, Saitama, 330–8660, Japan
Miyoshi Yoshimura
Affiliation:
Dia Consulants Co., Ltd, 2–272–3, Yoshino-cho, Saitama-shi, Saitama, 330–8660, Japan
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Abstract

The selection of Preliminary Investigation Areas (PIAs) to be considered in the siting procedure for a Japanese High Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) repository, will require Site-specific Evaluation Factors (SSEF) to be considered. Evaluation of these factors requires a methodology for taking into account various kinds of uncertainties in varied types of literature data. The study described here evaluated the application of Evidential Support Logic (ESL) for this purpose. The approach involves constructing hierarchical process models. Uncertainties are then propagated from the lowest processes, corresponding to data or information, through intermediate processes, to some top level process of interest, such as “assessing the existence of an active fault”. To evaluate the usefulness of ESL a hypothetical site was assessed. The results demonstrate the value of the approach to support decision-making in the selection of PIAs.

Type
Research Article
Information
MRS Online Proceedings Library (OPL) , Volume 807: Symposium Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management XXVII , 2003 , 21
Copyright
Copyright © Materials Research Society 2004

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References

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