Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-hc48f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T16:28:37.221Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Probabilistic temperature forecast by using ground station measurements and ECMWF ensemble prediction system

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 January 2005

P. Boi
Affiliation:
Servizio Agrometeorologico Regionale, viale Porto Torres, 119, Sassari, Italy Email: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System 2-metre temperature forecasts are affected by systematic errors due mainly to resolution inadequacies. Moreover, other errors sources are present: differences in height above sea level between the station and the corresponding grid point, boundary layer parameterisation, and description of the land surface. These errors are more marked in regions of complex orography. A recursive statistical procedure to adapt ECMWF EPS-2metre temperature fields to 58 meteorological stations on the Mediterranean island of Sardinia is presented. The correction has been made in three steps: (1) bias correction of systematic errors; (2) calibration to adapt the EPS temperature distribution to the station temperature distribution; and (3) doubling the ensemble size with the aim of taking into account the analysis errors. Two years of probabilistic forecasts of freezing are tested by Brier Score, reliability diagram, rank histogram and Brier Skill Score with respect to the climatological forecast. The score analysis shows much better performance in comparison with the climatological forecast and direct model output, for all forecast timse, even after the first step (bias correction). Further gains in skill are obtained by calibration and by doubling the ensemble size.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)