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On the relationship between Clayton's skill score and expected value for forecasts of binary events

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 December 2002

Matthew S. Wandishin  and
Harold E. Brooks
Matthew S. Wandishin
Affiliation:
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
Harold E. Brooks
Affiliation:
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
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Abstract

Following upon previous efforts to associate standard measures of forecast skill to relative economic value, the connection is established between the Clayton skill score and the range of users who realise positive value from the forecasts. It is also shown that, whereas the maximum relative value that can be obtained from a set of forecasts is based on the probabilities conditioned on the observations, the range of users for whom the forecasts provide positive relative value is based on the probabilities conditioned on the forecasts.

Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 9 , Issue 4 , December 2002 , pp. 455 - 459
Copyright
© 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

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