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Objective pattern discrimination model for dust storm forecasting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2002

Gao Tao
Affiliation:
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Bureau, 010051 Huhhot, Peoples Republic of China
Liu Jingtao
Affiliation:
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Bureau, 010051 Huhhot, Peoples Republic of China
Yu Xiao
Affiliation:
Inner Mongolia Computer Centre, 010010 Huhhot, Peoples Republic of China
Kang Ling
Affiliation:
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Bureau, 010051 Huhhot, Peoples Republic of China
Fan Yida
Affiliation:
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Bureau, 010051 Huhhot, Peoples Republic of China
Hu Yinghua
Affiliation:
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Bureau, 010051 Huhhot, Peoples Republic of China
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Abstract

For forecasting strong dust storms in the central and western areas of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region an objective discrimination approach has been developed. The 37 strong dust-storm events that occurred in this area during the last 40 years have been classified into four circulation patterns. Using the method suggested by Saaty (1996), a priority relationship matrix was set up and the discrimination function was then established. Depending on the function values, a judgement is then made about whether the real-time situation belongs to any of the four patterns and, if so, to which one. If there is a match, then this typical event can be used as a basis for forecasting a strong dust storm. The successful application of this approach is demonstrated using results from 1998 and 2000.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

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