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Forecasting of Indian south-west monsoon rainfall

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 June 2001

K Bhaskara Rao ,
C V Naidu  and
O S R U Bhanukumar
K Bhaskara Rao
Affiliation:
Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India
C V Naidu
Affiliation:
Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India
O S R U Bhanukumar
Affiliation:
Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India
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Abstract

An attempt has been made to forecast the all-India monsoon rainfall by using 30 years' pre-monsoon upper-air mean temperatures (recorded between 1959 and 1988) at stations over India. The importance of Nagpur temperatures at 850 and 700 hPa during the pre-monsoon season is discussed. Two sets of regression equations, one with April temperatures and the other with May temperatures, are fitted using the independent predictors. The equations are tested for a two-year period (1989-1990). The forecast values are found to be reasonably good.

Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 8 , Issue 2 , June 2001 , pp. 245 - 252
Copyright
© 2001 Royal Meteorological Society

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