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Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 April 2010
Abstract
Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicate clinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventions such as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. Here we develop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenza transmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of school closures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable when pre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children is inefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisions dependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicable to the current epidemic and future epidemics.
- Type
- Research Article
- Information
- Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena , Volume 5 , Issue 3: Mathematical modeling in the medical sciences , 2010 , pp. 191 - 205
- Copyright
- © EDP Sciences, 2010
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