Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T06:05:25.294Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Influenza Transmission in Preschools: Modulation by contactlandscapes and interventions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2010

A.A. Adalja ,
P.S. Crooke  and
J.R. Hotchkiss
A.A. Adalja
Affiliation:
Center for Biosecurity and Department of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh
P.S. Crooke
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University
J.R. Hotchkiss*
Affiliation:
Departments of Critical Care Medicine and Medicine, University of Pittsburgh
*
* Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

Epidemiologic data suggest that schools and daycare facilities likely play a major rolein the dissemination of influenza. Pathogen transmission within such small, inhomogenouslymixed populations is difficult to model using traditional approaches. We developedsimulation based mathematical tool to investigate the effects of social contact networkson pathogen dissemination in a setting analogous to a daycare center or grade school. Herewe show that interventions that decrease mixing within child care facilities, includinglimiting the size of social clusters, reducing the contact frequency between socialclusters, and eliminating large gatherings, could diminish pathogen dissemination.Moreover, these measures may amplify the effectiveness of vaccination or antiviralprophylaxis, even if the vaccine is not uniformly effective or antiviral compliance isincomplete. Similar considerations should apply to other small, imperfectly mixedpopulations, such as offices and schools.

Keywords

influenzaMonte Carlo modelpreschoollandscape ruggedness
Type
Research Article
Information
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena , Volume 5 , Issue 3: Mathematical modeling in the medical sciences , 2010 , pp. 3 - 14
Copyright
© EDP Sciences, 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Radonovich, L.J., Bender, B.S.. Children Should Be Among the Highest Priority Groups to Receive Immunization for Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza . Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 5 (2007), No. 4, 363-366. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Neuzil, K.M., Zhu, Y., Griffin, M.R., Edwards, K.M., Thompson, J.M., Tollefson, S.J., Writght, P.F.. Burden of interpandemic influenza in children younger than 5 years: A 25-year prospective study . J. Infect. Dis., 185 (2002), No. 2, 147–152.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Longini, I.M., Nizam, A., Xu, S.F., Ungchusak, K., Hanshaoworakul, W., Cummings, D.A.T., Halloran, M.E.. Containing pandemic influenza at the source . Science, 309 (2005), 1083–1087.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ferguson, N.M., Cummings, D.A.T., Cauchemez, S., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Meeyai, A., Iamsirithaworn, S., Burke, D.S.. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia . Nature, 437 (2005), No. 7056, 209–214.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Germann, T.C., Kadau, K., Longini, I.M., Macken, C.A.. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States . Proc Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103 (2006), No. 15, 5935–5940.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ferguson, N.M., Cummings, D.A.T., Fraser, C., Cajka, J.C., Cooley, P.C., Burke, D.S.. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic . Nature, 442 (2006), No. 7101, 448–452.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Halloran, M.E., Ferguson, N.M., Eubank, S., Longini, I.M., Cummings, D.A.T., Lewis, B., Xu, S.F., Fraser, C., Vullikanti, A., Germann, T.C., Wagner, D., Beckman, R., Kadau, K., Barrett, C., Macken, C.A., Burke, D.S., Cooley, P.C.. Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States . Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105 (2008), No. 12, 4639–4644.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ancel Meyers, L., Newman, M.E., Martin, M., Schrag, S.. Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks . Emerg. Infect. Dis., 9 (2003), No. 2, 204–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bansal, S., Grenfell, B.T., Meyers, L.A.. When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology . JR. Soc. Interface, 4 (2007) No. 16, 879–891. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hotchkiss, J.R., Strike, D.G., Simonson, D.A., Broccard, A.F., Crooke, P.S.. An agent-based and spatially explicit model of pathogen dissemination in the intensive care unit . Crit. Care. Med., 33 (2005), No. 1, 168–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilson, W.G.. Resolving discrepancies between deterministic population models and individual-based simulations . Am. Nat., 151 (1998), No. 2, 116-134.Google ScholarPubMed
Halloran, M.E., Hayden, F.G., Yang, Y., Longini, I.M., Monto, A.S.. Antiviral effects on influenza viral transmission and pathogenicity: observations from household-based trials . Am. J. Epidemiol., 165 (2007), No. 2, 212–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hayden, F.G., Atmar, R.L., Schilling, M., Johnson, C., Poretz, D., Paar, D., Huson, L., Ward, P., Mills, R.G.. Use of the selective oral neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir to prevent influenza . N. Engl. J. Med., 341 (1999), No. 18, 1336–1343.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hayden, F.G., Treanor, J.J., Fritz, R.S., Lobo, M., Miller, R.F., Kinnersley, N., Mills, R.G., Ward, P., Straus, S.E.. Use of the oral neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir in experimental human influenza: randomized controlled trials for prevention and treatment . J. Am. Med. Assoc., 282 (1999), No. 13, 1240–1246.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weycker, D., Edelsbeg, J., Halloran, M.E., Longini, I.M., Nizam, A., Ciuyla, V., Oster, G.. Population-wide benefits of routine vaccination of children against influenza . Vaccine, 23 (2005), No. 10, 1284–1293.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
M.M. Wagner, L.S. Gresham, V. Dato. Case. Detection, Outbreak Detection and Outbreak Characterization. M.M. Wagner, A.W. Moore and R.M. Aryel(Eds) In Handbook of Biosurveillance, Elsevier, Burlington, 2006, 27–51.
Stein, J., Louie, J., Flanders, S., Maselli, J., Hacker, J., Drew, W.L., Gonzales, R.. Performance characteristics of clinical diagnosis, a clinical decision rule, and a rapid influenza test in the detection of influenza infection in a community sample of adults . Ann. Emerg. Med., 46 (2005), 412-419.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hotchkiss, J.R., Holley, P., Crooke, P.S.. Analyzing Pathogen Transmission in the Dialysis Unit: Time for a (Schedule) Change? Clin. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol., 2 (2007), No. 6, 1176–1185. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Longini, I.M., Halloran, M.E., Nizam, A., Wolff, M., Mendelman, P.M., Fast, P.E., Belshe, R.B.. Estimation of the efficacy of live, attenuated influenza vaccine from a two-year, multi-center vaccine trial: implications for influenza epidemic control . Vaccine, 18 (2000), No. 18, 1902–1909.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Markel, H., Lipman, H.B., Navarro, J.A., Navarro, J.A., Sloan, A., Michalsen, J., Stern, A.M., Cetron, M.S.. Nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented by US cities during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic . J. Am. Med. Assoc., 298 (2007), No. 6, 644–654.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed