This paper investigates the degree of comovements in quarterly Italian time series of sectoral output. A recently developed multivariate technique for the empirical analysis of long-run, cyclical and seasonal comovements is used in the context of a multisectoral real-business-cycle model augmented with persistent seasonal shocks in productivity. Our empirical results emphasize the role of input–output relations in the propagation mechanism and indicate that sectoral outputs have a relatively low number of common stochastic trends, in conflict with the hypothesis of independent productivity shocks. In contrast, stochastic seasonals seem to move idiosyncratically. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the theoretical model should be extended to allow for deterministic seasonal shifts in preferences.

This paper examines an economy in which output is produced by state-owned enterprises and private firms. Private-capital formation requires intermediation that is subject to a credit market friction. In this environment, I look at the effects of a privatization policy that transfers state-owned capital to the private sector. Multiple steady-state equilibria are possible. When these arise, the low-wage equilibrium features a relatively inefficient financial system and privatization transfers help to increase the aggregate capital stock by reducing the severity of the credit market frictions. On the other hand, privatization transfers may have adverse effects when the economy is at the high-wage equilibrium. Analysis of the dynamic characteristics of the model reveals that development trap phenomenon and endogenous fluctuations can be observed.

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

In recent decades, the structure of wages in the U.S. economy has shifted to favor workers with college degrees over those without college degrees. Concurrently, there has been an increase in the share of the workforce that is college educated. We build an overlapping generations model in which skill-biased technological change drives both rising wage inequality and a rising percentage of skilled (educated) workers in the labor force. We explore the implications for agent welfare and for the distribution of income of different factor taxation choices. We find that higher tax rates on capital and lower tax rates on unskilled labor can yield steady-state welfare gains across a heterogeneous population, and that these gains increase as the economy experiences technological change that favors skilled labor. Moreover, these shifts in taxation can lower net wage inequality. Steady-state welfare gains, however, come at the expense of agents alive upon implementation.

We study a structural dynamic monetary economy submitted to technological, monetary, and real demand shocks, and investigate the nature of optimal monetary and fiscal policies under Walrasian or preset wages and prices. If prices and wages are Walrasian, then the optimal policies are both nonactivist and derive directly from Milton Friedman's prescriptions. If prices or wages are preset, however, optimal policies, and, notably, the fiscal part, become activist and countercyclical.

We obtain the transitional dynamics of the decentralized economy described by P.M. Romer and characterize the dynamic behavior of the most relevant variables. We determine the existence of a stable one-dimensional manifold containing a steady state with innovation, unique in ratios, and also find a threshold in the accumulation of physical capital below which the economy is not innovating. Finally, using simulations, we assess the significance of this threshold and analyze the influence that technological and utility parameters have on it.