Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T06:59:28.140Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

TAYLOR RULE AND DISCRETIONARY REGIMES IN THE UNITED STATES: EVIDENCE FROM A k-STATE MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING MODEL

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2016

Joseph D. Alba*
Affiliation:
Nanyang Technological University
Peiming Wang
Affiliation:
Auckland University of Technology
*
Address correspondence to: Joseph D. Alba, HSS-04-79, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore639798; e-mail: [email protected].
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

We examine U.S. monetary policies from 1973 to 2014 with the Taylor rule as a benchmark by utilizing a k-state Markov regime-switching model in which the number and the periods of the regimes are endogenously determined. The model relates the federal funds rate to real time output gaps and inflation forecast. It endogenously identifies the periods of Taylor rule regime and discretionary regimes, consistent with the U.S. experience. The Taylor rule regime also coincides with periods of lower variability in inflation and in real GDP growth.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

Footnotes

We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.

References

REFERENCES

Benati, Luca, and Surico, Paulo (2009) VAR analysis and the Great Moderation. American Economic Review 99, 16361652.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S. (2010) Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble. Speech delivered at the American Economic Association Meetings, January 3.Google Scholar
Boivin, Jean (2006) Has U.S. monetary policy changed? Evidence from drifting coefficients and real-time data. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38, 11491179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Castelnuovo, Efrem, Greco, Luciano, and Raggi, Davide (2014) Policy rules, regime switches, and trend inflation: An empirical investigation for the United States. Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, 920942.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarida, Richard, Gali, Jordi, and Gertler, Mark (2000) Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics 115, 147180.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, Todd E. (2009) Is the Great Moderation over? An empirical analysis. Economic Review 4, 542.Google Scholar
Davig, Troy and Leeper, Eric M. (2006) Fluctuating macro policies and the fiscal theory. In Acemoglu, Daron, Rogoff, Kenneth, and Woodford, Michael (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, pp. 345377. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Davig, Troy, and Leeper, Eric M. (2011) Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus. European Economic Review 55, 211227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garcia, René (1998) Asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio test in Markov switching models. International Economic Review 39, 763788.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haas, Markus, Mittnik, Stefan, and Paolella, Mark (2004) A new approach to Markov switching GARCH models. Journal of Financial Econometrics 4, 493530.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, James D. (1994) Time-Series Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Chang-Jin and Nelson, Charles R. (2006) Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data. Journal of Monetary Economics 53, 19491966.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leroux, Brian G. (1992) Consistent estimation of a mixing distribution. Annals of Statistics 20, 13501360.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murray, Christian, Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, and Papell, David H. (2015) Markov switching and the Taylor principle. Macroeconomic Dynamics 19, 913930.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex and Papell, David H. (2012) Taylor rules and the Great Inflation. Journal of Macroeconomics 34, 903918.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex and Papell, David H. (2013) Taylor's rule versus Taylor rules. International Finance 16, 7193.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, Papell, David H., and Prodan, Ruxandra (2013) (Taylor) Rules versus Discretion in U.S. Monetary Policy. Working paper, Lehigh University. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2294990.Google Scholar
Orphanides, Athanasios (2003a) Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule. Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 9831022.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orphanides, Athanasios (2003b) The quest for prosperity without inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 633663.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orphanides, Athanasios (2004) Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability, and inflation: A view from the trenches. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36, 151175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rydén, Tobias (1995) Estimating the order of hidden Markov models. Statistics 26, 345354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwarz, Gideon (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics 6, 461464.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, John B. (1993) Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, 195214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, John B. (1999) A historical analysis of monetary policy rules. In Taylor, John (ed.), Monetary Policy Rules, pp. 319347. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, John B. (2008) The Costs and Benefits of Deviating from the Systematic Component of Monetary Policy. Keynote address at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Conference on Monetary Policy and Asset Markets, February 22.Google Scholar
Wang, Peiming and Puterman, Martin L. (1999) Markov Poisson regression models for discrete time series. Journal of Applied Statistics 26, 855869.CrossRefGoogle Scholar