Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-4rdpn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T11:44:24.276Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

REAL ESTATE CYCLES, ASSET REDISTRIBUTION, AND THE DYNAMICS OF A CRISIS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2016

Suparna Chakraborty*
Affiliation:
University of San Francisco
*
Address correspondence to: Suparna Chakraborty, Department of Economics, University of San Francisco, 2130 Fulton Street, San Francisco, CA 94117, USA; email: [email protected].

Abstract

In this paper, I explore the dynamics of real estate market fluctuations and business cycle co-movements in a neoclassical setting. Applying a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of collateral constraints with asset reallocation to Japan, I find that public policy shocks account well for the business cycle dynamics. In particular, taxes on land holdings of households mimic the impact of a housing preference shock, and if volatile enough, can trigger large asset price fluctuations. However, in the absence of volatility, the impact on prices is intrinsically linked to the persistence of shocks. Dependence on fixed assets such as real estate to secure collateral-based financing significantly amplifies the effect of initial shocks on the real macro aggregates. The financial accelerator works through the “redistribution channel,” shifting a large fraction of the collateral between constrained and unconstrained agents in response to an external stimuli.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Bratsiotis, George J., and Pfajfar, Damjan (2014) Credit frictions, collateral, and the cyclical behavior of finance premium. Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, 985997.Google Scholar
Barseghyan, Levon (2010) Non performing loans, prospective bailouts, and persistent declines in economic activity. Journal of Monetary Economics 57, 873890.Google Scholar
Benk, Szilárd, Gillman, Max, and Kejak, Michael (2005) Credit shocks in the financial deregulatory era: Not the usual suspects. Review of Economic Dynamics 8, 668687.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S. and Gertler, Mark (1989) Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations. American Economic Review 79, 1431.Google Scholar
Caballero, Ricardo J. and Krishnamurthy, Arvind (2001) International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises. Journal of Monetary Economics 48, 513548.Google Scholar
Canova, Favio (1998) Detrending and business cycle facts. Journal of Monetary Economics 41, 475512.Google Scholar
Chakraborty, Suparna (2009) The boom and the bust of the Japanese economy: A quantitative look at the period 1980 to 2000. Japan and the World Economy 21, 116131.Google Scholar
Chari, Vardarajan V., Kehoe, Patrick J., and McGrattan, Ellen R. (2002) Business Cycle Accounting. Working paper 625, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.Google Scholar
Chari, Vardarajan V., Kehoe, Patrick J., and McGrattan, Ellen R. (2007) Business cycle accounting. Econometrica 75, 781836.Google Scholar
Cordoba, Juan C. and Ripoll, Marla (2004) Credit cycles redux. International Economic Review 45, 10111046.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, Morris A. and Heathcote, Jonathan (2005) Housing and the business cycle. International Economic Review 46, 751784.Google Scholar
Dressler, Scott J. and Kersting, Erasmus K. (2014) Economies of scale in banking, confidence shocks, and business cycles. Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, 10691080.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feng, Ling (2014) Taste shocks, endogenous labor supply, and equity home bias. Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, 14371465.Google Scholar
Garber, Peter M. (1990) Famous first bubbles. Journal of Economic Perspectives 4, 3554.Google Scholar
Hayashi, Fumio and Prescott, Edward C. (2002) The 1990s in Japan: A lost decade. Review of Economic Dynamics 5, 206235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoshi, Takeo and Kashyap, Anil K. (2010) Will the U.S. bank recapitalization succeed? Lessons from Japan. Journal of Financial Economics 97, 398417.Google Scholar
Iacoviello, Matteo (2005) House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle. American Economic Review 95, 739764.Google Scholar
Iacoviello, Matteo and Neri, Stefano (2010) Housing market spillovers: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model. American Economic Journal–Macroeconomics 2, 125164.Google Scholar
Ishi, Hiromitsu (2001) The Japanese Tax System. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jermann, Urban J. and Quadrini, Vincenzo (2012) Macroeconomic effects of financial shocks. American Economic Review 102, 238271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jorgenson, Dale W. and Motohashi, Kazuyuki (2005) Information technology and the Japanese economy. Journal of Japanese and International Economics 19, 460481.Google Scholar
Kashyap, Anil K., Stein, Jeremy C., and Wilcox, David W. (1993) Monetary policy and credit constraints: Evidence from the composition of external finance. American Economic Review 83, 7898.Google Scholar
Kim, Kyung-Hwan and Suh, Seong Hwan (2005) Speculation and price bubbles in the Korean and Japanese real estate markets. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 6, 7387.Google Scholar
King, Robert G., Plosser, Charles I., and Rebelo, Sergio T. (1988) Production, growth and business cycles: I. The basic neoclassical model. Journal of Monetary Economics 21, 195232.Google Scholar
Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro and Moore, John H. (1997) Credit cycles. Journal of Political Economy 105, 211248.Google Scholar
Kocherlakota, Naryana (2000) Creating business cycles through credit constraints. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 2431, 110.Google Scholar
Krishnamurthy, Arvind (2010) Amplification mechanisms in liquidity crisis. American Economic Journal–-Macroeconomics 2, 130.Google Scholar
Liu, Zheng, Wang, Pengfei, and Zha, Tao (2013) Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations. Econometrica 81, 11471184.Google Scholar
Martin, Alberto and Ventura, Jaume (2012) Economic growth with bubbles. American Economic Review 102, 30333058.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGrattan, Ellen R. (2012) Capital taxation during US great depression. Quarterly Journal of Economics 127, 15151550.Google Scholar
McGrattan, Ellen R. and Ohanian, Lee E. (2010) Does neoclassical theory account for the effects of big fiscal shocks? Evidence from World War II. International Economic Review 51, 509532.Google Scholar
Mendoza, Enrique G. and Smith, Katherine A.. (2006) Quantitative implications of a debt–deflation theory of sudden stops and asset prices. Journal of International Economics 70, 82114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mera, Koichi (2000) Land price ascent and government response in Japan. In Mera, K. and Renaud, B. (eds.), Asia's Financial Crisis and the Role of Real Estate, pp. 2763. London: M.E. Sharp.Google Scholar
Miao, Jianjun, Wang, Pengfei, and Xu, Zhiwei (2012) A Bayesian DSGE Model of Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles. Boston University working paper.Google Scholar
Miao, Jianjun, Wang, Pengfei, and Zhou, Jing (2013) Housing Bubbles and Policy Analysis. Boston University working paper.Google Scholar
Miao, Jianjun, Wang, Pengfei, and Zha, Tao (2014) Liquidity Premia, Price–Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles. Boston University working paper.Google Scholar
Peek, Joe and Rosengren, Eric S. (2005) Unnatural selection: Perverse incentives and the misallocation of credit in Japan. American Economic Review 95, 11441166.Google Scholar
Stone, Douglas and Ziemba, William T. (1993) Land and stock prices in Japan. Journal of Economic Perspectives 7, 149165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tortorice, Daniel L. (2014) Credit constraints, learning, and aggregate consumption volatility. Macro- economic Dynamics 18, 338368.Google Scholar