Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-26T04:54:30.338Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

MAXIMIZING PREDICTABILITY IN THE STOCK AND BOND MARKETS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 March 2005

ANDREW W. LO
Affiliation:
Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A. CRAIG MACKINLAY
Affiliation:
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Extract

We construct portfolios of stocks and bonds that are maximally predictable with respect to a set of ex-ante observable economic variables, and show that these levels of predictability are statistically significant, even after controlling for data-snooping biases. We disaggregate the sources of predictability by using several asset groups — sector portfolios, market-capitalization portfolios, and stock/bond/utility portfolios — and find that the sources of maximal predictability shift considerably across asset classes and sectors as the return horizon changes. Using three out-of-sample measures of predictability — forecast errors, Merton's market-timing measure, and the profitability of asset-allocation strategies based on maximizing predictability — we show that the predictability of the maximally predictable portfolio is genuine and economically significant.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 1997 Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)