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HOW CHILD COSTS AND SURVIVAL SHAPED THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 August 2012

Holger Strulik  and
Jacob Weisdorf
Holger Strulik*
Affiliation:
University of Göttingen
Jacob Weisdorf
Affiliation:
University of Southern Denmark
*
Address correspondence to: Holger Strulik, Department of Economics, University of Göttingen, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen, Germany; email: [email protected].
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Abstract

This study provides a unified growth theory to correctly predict the initially negative and subsequently positive relationship between child mortality and net reproduction observed in industrialized countries over the course of their demographic transitions. The model captures the intricate interplay between technological progress, mortality, fertility, and economic growth in the transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. It not only provides an explanation for the demographic observation that fertility rates response with a delay to lower child mortality, but also identifies a number of turning points over the course of development, suggesting a high degree of complexity in the relationships between various economic and demographic variables.

Keywords

Economic GrowthMortalityFertilityStructural ChangeIndustrial Revolution
Type
Articles
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 18 , Issue 1 , January 2014 , pp. 114 - 144
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012 

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