The potential spatial distributions of six epiphytic lichen species were assessed in Switzerland (41 000 km2) as a function of various key climatic drivers and forest types using logistic regression models. Cetrelia cetrarioides is ‘near threatened’, Lobaria pulmonaria is ‘vulnerable’, and Graphis scripta, Hypogymnia physodes, Lecanora cadubriae, Letharia vulpina are not endangered according to the Red List assessment based on IUCN criteria. Lichen presence and absence were derived from the SwissLichens database that contains spatially explicit information on both species presence and absence.

The spatial lichen niches are predicted with R2 values between 0·5 and 0·75 and AUC values between 0·63 and 0·94. Model evaluation shows that the models perform well.

Lichenologists reviewed the spatial predictions of lichen species on the basis of their expert knowledge and concluded that parsimonious regression models may suffice for successful prediction of the potential spatial niche distributions of epiphytic lichen species.