Hostname: page-component-7479d7b7d-68ccn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-08T09:36:00.696Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Human Information Processing and Adjudication: Trial by Heuristics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 July 2024

Michael J. Saks  and
Robert F. Kidd
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article addresses the role of quantitative evidence and methods in trials. Major arguments against the introduction of explicit computation information are considered and contrasted with findings about the characteristics of the unaided human decision maker. Emphasis is given to behavioral decision theory and the heuristic biases it reveals. Consideration is given to the symbolic versus “truth-finding” functions of trials, mathematical models (especially linear) of decision making, advocacy tactics that follow from what has been learned about how humans process information, the diagnostic value of aggregate probabilities, the notion of particularistic proof, and the evaluation of witness credibility. We conclude that unaided human decision making embodies certain normal and lawful errors, and that the exclusion of mathematical guides to aid a fact finder, while avoiding some problems, exposes the fact-finding process to the heuristic biases of intuitive decision making.

Type
Research Article
Information
Law & Society Review , Volume 15 , Issue 1 , 1981 , pp. 123 - 160
Copyright
Copyright © 1981 The Law and Society Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

References

AREEDA, Phillip (1974) Antitrust Analysis: Problems, Text, Cases. 2nd ed. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
BALDUS, David C. and James W., COLE (1979) Statistical Proof of Discrimination. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
BAR-HILLEL, Maya (1973) “On the Subjective Probability of Compared Events,” 9 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 396.Google Scholar
BAZELON, David (1977) “Coping With Technology Through the Legal Process,” 62 Cornell Law Review 817.Google Scholar
BEUSCHER, J.H. (1941) “The Use of Experts by the Courts,” 54 Harvard Law Review 1105.Google Scholar
BOWMAN, E.H. (1963) “Consistency and Optimality in Managerial Decision-Making,” 9 Management Science 310.Google Scholar
BREWER, James K. and Patricia W., OWEN (1973) “A Note on the Power of Statistical Tests in the ‘Journal of Educational Measurement,‘” 10 Journal of Educational Measurement 71.Google Scholar
BROUN, Kenneth S. and Douglas G., KELLY (1970) “Playing the Percentages and the Law of Evidence,” 1970 University of Illinois Law Forum 23.Google Scholar
BROWN, Rex V., KAHR, Andrew S., and Cameron, PETERSON (1974) Decision Analysis for the Manager. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.Google Scholar
BRUNER, Jerome S. and Renato, TAGIURI (1954) “The Perception of People,” in Lindzey, Gardner (ed.), Handbook of Social Psychology, Vol. 2. Cambridge, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
BUCKHOUT, Robert (1974) “Eyewitness Testimony,” 321 Scientific American 23.Google Scholar
CHAPMAN, Loren J. and Jean P., CHAPMAN (1967) “The Genesis of Popular but Erroneous Psychodiagnostic Signs,” 74 Journal of Abnormal Psychology 193.Google Scholar
CHAPMAN, Loren J. and Jean P., CHAPMAN (1969) “Illusory Correlation as an Obstacle to the Use of Valid Psychodiagnostic Observation,” 72 Journal of Abnormal Psychology 271.Google Scholar
COHEN, Jacob (1962) “The Statistical Power of Abnormal Social Psychological Research,” 65 Journal of Abnormal Social Psychology 145.Google Scholar
COHEN, Laurence J. (1977) The Probable and the Provable. Oxford: Clarendon Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
COHEN, L. Jonathan (1979) “On the Psychology of Prediction: Whose is the Fallacy?” 7 Cognition 385.Google Scholar
COHEN, L. Jonathan (1980) “Whose is the Fallacy? A Rejoinder to Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky,” 8 Cognition 89.Google Scholar
COHEN, Morris, Naomi, RONEN, and Jan, STEPAN (1978) Law and Science: A Selected Bibliography. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
CULLISON, Alan D. (1969) “Probability Analysis of Judicial Fact-Finding: A Preliminary Outline of the Subjective Approach,” 1969 University of Toledo Law Review 538.Google Scholar
DAVIS, K.B., WEISBROD, R.L., FREEDY, A. and G., WELTMAN (1975) “Adaptive Computer Aiding in Dynamic Decision Processes: An Experimental Study of Aiding Effectiveness,” Technical Reporter PTR-1016-75-5. Woodland Hills, CC.: Perceptronics.Google Scholar
DAWES, Robyn (1979) “The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision-Making,” 34 American Psychologist 571.Google Scholar
DAWES, Robyn M. and Bernard, CORRIGAN (1974) “Linear Models in Decision Making,” 81 Psychological Bulletin 95.Google Scholar
DERSHOWITZ, Alan (1968) “Psychology in the Legal Process: A Knife that Cuts Both Ways,” 4 Trial 29 (Feb/Mar).Google Scholar
EDWARDS, Ward (1962) “Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Process,” 4 Human Factors 59.Google Scholar
EINHORN, Hillel J. (1972) “Expert Measurement and Mechanical Combination,” 7 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 86.Google Scholar
ENNIS, Bruce and T.R., LITWACK (1974) “Psychiatry and the Presumption of Expertise: Flipping Coins in the Courtroom,” 62 California Law Review 693.Google Scholar
FAIRLEY, William B. and Frederick, MOSTELLER (1974) “A Conversation About Collins,” 41 University of Chicago Law Review 242.Google Scholar
FINKELSTEIN, Michael O. and William B., FAIRLEY (1970) “A Bayesian Approach to Identification Evidence,” 83 Harvard Law Review 489.Google Scholar
FISCHHOFF, Baruch (1975) “Hindsight Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty,” 1 Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 288.Google Scholar
FISCHHOFF, Baruch and Ruth, BEYTH (1975) “I Knew it Would Happen'—Remembered Probabilities of Once-future Things,” 13 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 1.Google Scholar
GALTON, Francis (1965) Fingerprints. N.Y., Da Capo Press, Inc.Google Scholar
GARDNER, Dillard S. (1933) “The Perception and Memory of Witnesses,” 18 Cornell Law Quarterly 391.Google Scholar
GILBERT, John P., PEEK, Bucknam MC, and Frederick, MOSTELLER (1977) “Statistics and Ethics in Surgery and Anesthesia,” 198 Science 684.Google Scholar
GOLDBERG, Lewis R. (1970) “Man versus Model of Man: A Rationale, Plus Some Evidence, For a Method of Improving on Clinical Inferences,” 73 Psychological Bulletin 422.Google Scholar
HAMMOND, Kenneth (1971) “Computer Graphics as an Aid to Learning,” 172 Science 903.Google Scholar
HAMMOND, Kenneth (1974) “Human Judgment and Social Policy,” Progress in Research on Human Judgment and Social Interaction, Report 170. Boulder: Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado.Google Scholar
HAMMOND, Kenneth R., STEWART, Thomas R., BREHMER, Berndt, and Derick O., STEINMANN (1975) “Social Judgment Theory,” in Kaplan, Martin and Schwartz, Steven (eds.), Human Judgment and Decision Processes. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
HOWARD, Ronald A., MATHESON, James E., and Katherine L., MILLER (1977) Readings in Decision Analysis. Menlo Park: Stanford Research Institute.Google Scholar
KAHNEMAN, Daniel, and Amos, TVERSKY (1972) “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness,” 3 Cognitive Psychology 430.Google Scholar
KAHNEMAN, Daniel, and Amos, TVERSKY (1973) “On the Psychology of Prediction,” 80 Psychological Review 237.Google Scholar
KAHNEMAN, Daniel, and Amos, TVERSKY (1979) “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk,” 47 Econometrica 263.Google Scholar
KAPLAN, John (1968) “Decision Theory and the Fact Finding Process,” 20 Stanford Law Review 1065.Google Scholar
KIDD, John B. (1970) “The Utilization of Subjective Probabilities in Production Planning,” 34 Acta Psychologica 338.Google Scholar
KRIEG, A.F., R., GAMBINO, and R.S., GALEN (1975) “Why are Clinical Laboratory Tests Performed? When Are They Valid?” 233 Journal of the American Medical Association 76.Google Scholar
KRUPP, Marcus A., SWEET, N.J., JAWETZ, E., BIGUERI, E.G., ROE, R.L., and C.A., CAMARGO (1979) Physicians Handbook. Los Altos, CA: Lange Medical Publications.Google Scholar
LEMPERT, Richard O. (1977) “Modeling Relevance,” 75 Michigan Law Review 1021.Google Scholar
LEVENTHAL, Harold (1974) “Environmental Decision Making and the Role of the Courts,” 122 Univeristy of Pennsylvania Law Review 509.Google Scholar
LEVINE, Felice J. and June L., TAPP (1973) “The Psychology of Criminal Identification: The Gap From Wade to Kirby”, 121 University of Pennsylvania Law Review 1079.Google Scholar
LICHTENSTEIN, Sarah C. and Paul, SLOVIC (1971) “Reversals of Preference Between Bids and Choices in Gambling Decisions,” 89 Journal of Experimental Psychology 46.Google Scholar
LICHTENSTEIN, Sarah C. and Paul, SLOVIC (1973) “Response-induced Reversals of Preference in Gambling: An Extended Replication in Las Vegas,” 101 Journal of Experimental Psychology 16.Google Scholar
LIVERMORE, Joseph M., MALMQUIST, Carl P., and Paul E., MEEHL (1968) “On the Justifications for Civil Commitment,” 117 University of Pennsylvania Law Review 75.Google Scholar
LOFTUS, Elizabeth (1980) “Impact of Expert Psychological Testimony on the Unreliability of Eyewitness Identification,” 65 Journal of Applied Psychology 9.Google Scholar
LOFTUS, Geoffrey R. and Elizabeth F., LOFTUS (1976) Human Memory: The Processing of Information. New York: Halsted Press.Google Scholar
MEEHL, Paul E. (1954) Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MEYER, Perry (1973) “Evidence in the Future,” 51 Canadian Bar Review 107.Google Scholar
MISCHEL, Walter (1968) Personality and Assessment. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
MUNSTERBERG, Hugo (1976) On the Witness Stand: Essays on Psychology and Crime. New York: AMS Press.Google Scholar
NISBETT, Richard and Linda, TEMOSHOK (1976) “Is There an ‘External’ Cognitive Style?” 33 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 36.Google Scholar
PETERSON, Joseph L., FABRICANT, Ellen L., and Kenneth S., FIELD (1978) Crime Laboratory Proficiency Testing Research Program - Final Report. U.S. Dept. of Justice, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
RAIFFA, Howard (1968) Decision Analysis; Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
SAKS, Michael (1976) “The Limits of Scientific Jury Selection: Ethical and Empirical,” 17 Jurimetrics Journal 3.Google Scholar
SAKS, Michael (1977) Jury Verdicts: The Role of Group Size and Social Decision Rule. Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath.Google Scholar
SAVAGE, Leonard J. (1954) The Foundations of Statistics. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
SAWYER, Jack (1966) “Measurement and Prediction, Clinical and Statistical,” 66 Psychological Bulletin 178.Google Scholar
SCHLAIFER, Robert (1969) Analysis of Decisions Under Uncertainty. Huntington, N.Y.: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
SCHREIBER, Sol (1967) Product Liability: Law, Practice, Science. New York: Practicing Law Institute.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1979) “A Review of a Case Against Blaise Pascal and His Heirs,” 77 Michigan Law Review 446.Google Scholar
SLOVIC, Paul (1969) “Analyzing the Expert Judge: A Descriptive Study of a Stockbroker's Decision Processes,” 53 Journal of Applied Psychology 255.Google Scholar
SLOVIC, Paul and Sarah, LICHTENSTEIN (1971) “Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment,” 6 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 649.Google Scholar
SLOVIC, Paul, KUNREUTHER, H., and G.F., WHITE (1974) “Decision Processes, Rationality, and Adjustment to Natural Hazards,” in White, G.F. (ed.), Natural Hazards, Local, National, and Global. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
SLOVIC, Paul, Baruch, FISCHHOFF, and Sarah C., LICHTENSTEIN (1976) “Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk-Taking,” in Carrol, John and Payne, John (eds.), Cognition and Social Behavior 169. New York: Halstead Press.Google Scholar
SLOVIC, Paul, LICHTENSTEIN, Sarah C., and Baruch, FISCHHOFF (1977) “Behavioral Decision Theory,” 28 Annual Review of Psychology 1.Google Scholar
STEADMAN, Henry J. and Joseph J., COCOZZA (1974) Careers of the Criminally Insane: Excessive Social Control of Deviance. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
STEWART, Richard (1975) “The Reformation of American Administrative Law,” 88 Harvard Law Review 1669.Google Scholar
SUE, Stanley, SMITH, Ronald E., and Cathy, CALDWELL (1973) “Effects of Inadmissible Evidence on the Decisions of Simulated Jurors: A Moral Dilemma,” 3 Journal of Applied Social Psychology 345.Google Scholar
THIBAUT, John and Laurens, WALKER (1975) Procedural Justice: A Psychological Analysis. New York: Halsted Press.Google Scholar
TRIBE, Laurence (1971) “Trial by Mathematics: Precision and Ritual in the Legal Process,” 84 Harvard Law Review 1329.Google Scholar
TVERSKY, Amos (1975) “Assessing Uncertainty,” 36B J.R. Stat. Soc. 148.Google Scholar
TVERSKY, Amos and Daniel, KAHNEMAN (1971) “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,” 76 Psychological Bulletin 105.Google Scholar
TVERSKY, Amos and Daniel, KAHNEMAN (1973) “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” 5 Cognitive Psychology 207.Google Scholar
TVERSKY, Amos and Daniel, KAHNEMAN (1974) “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” 185 Science 1124.Google Scholar
TVERSKY, Amos and Daniel, KAHNEMAN (1980) “Casual Schemata in Judgments Under Uncertainty,” in Fishbein, Martin (ed.), Progress in Social Psychology. Hillsdale, NY.: Laurence Erlbaum Associates.Google Scholar
VON HOLSTEIN, Carl-Axel S. Stael (1972) “Probabilistic Forecasting: An Experiment Related to the Stock Market,” 8 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 139.Google Scholar
WALLACE, Henry (1923) “What is in the Corn Judge's Mind?” 15 Journal of the American Society of Agronomy 300.Google Scholar
WIGGINS, Nancy and Eileen S., KOLEN (1971) “Man vs. Model of Man Revisited: The Forecasting of Graduate School Success,” 19 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 100.Google Scholar
WIGMORE, John H. (1940) Evidence in Trials at Common Law. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
YANKELOVICH, SKELLY and WHITE, Inc. (1978) “Highlights of a National Survey of the General Public, Judges, Lawyers, and Community Leaders,” in Fetter, Theodore J. (ed.), State Courts: A Blueprint for the Future. National Center for State Courts, Williamsburg, VA.Google Scholar
ZEISEL, Hans (1971) “… And Then There Were None: The Diminution of the Federal Jury,” 38 University of Chicago Law Review 710.Google Scholar
ZISKIN, Jay (1975) Coping With Psychiatric and Psychological Testimony. 2nd ed. Beverly Hills, CA: Law and Psychology Press.Google Scholar

Cases Cited

Addington v. Texas, 47 LW 4473, 1979.Google Scholar
Avco Corporation v. A.T.T., 68 F.R.D. 532, 1975.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ballew v. Georgia, 435 U.S. 223, 1978.Google Scholar
Essex Chemical Co. v. Ruckelshaus, 486 F2d 427, 1973.Google Scholar
Ethyl Corporation of America v. E.P.A., 541 F2d 1, 1976.Google Scholar
Greater Boston Television Corp. v. F.C.C., 444 F2d 841, 1970.Google Scholar
Gregg v. Georgia, 428 U.S. 153, 1976.Google Scholar
Hobson v. Hansen, 327 F. Supp. 844 D.C., 1971.Google Scholar
International Harvester Co. v. Ruckelshaus, 478 F2d 615, 1973.Google Scholar
La Buy v. Howes Leather Co., 352 U.S. 249, 1957.Google Scholar
Mashpee Wampanoag Indians v. Assessors, Mass., 398 N.E. 2d 724, 1980.Google Scholar
Omnium Lyonnaise D'Etancheite v. Dow Chemical Co., 73 F.R.D. 114, 1977.Google Scholar
People v. Collins, 66 Ca. Rptr. 497, 438 P2d 33, 1968.Google Scholar
Portland Cement Association v. Ruckelshaus, 486 F2d 375, 1973.Google Scholar
Reserve Mining Co. v. U.S., 514 F2d 492, 1975.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sargent v. Massachusetts Accident Co., 307 Mass. 246, 250, 29 N.E.2d 825, 827, 1940.Google Scholar
Smith v. Rapid Transit, Inc., 317 Mass. 469, 58 N.E.2d 754, 1945.Google Scholar
U.S. v. I.B.M., 72 F.R.D. 532, 1976.Google Scholar
Vermont v. New York, 417 U.S. 270, 1974.Google Scholar
Williams v. Florida, 399 U.S. 78, 1970.CrossRefGoogle Scholar