Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-01T00:20:06.467Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Variação da Volatilidade Eleitoral no Brasil: Um teste das explicações políticas, econômicas e sociais

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

Paulo Peres ,
Paolo Ricci  and
Lúcio R. Rennó
Paulo Peres
Affiliation:
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Paolo Ricci
Affiliation:
Universidade de São Paulo
Lúcio R. Rennó
Affiliation:
Universidade Nacional de Brasília
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Resumo

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

O índice de volatilidade eleitoral tem sido usado como um dos principais indicadores de institucionalização dos sistemas partidários em países de democracia recente. Contudo, os estudos comparados usualmente analisam esse índice num nível de agregação dos dados muito elevado, avaliando sua variação com base nas médias nacionais. Sob tal perspectiva, nosso objetivo é analisar a volatilidade eleitoral brasileira tomando os 27 entes federativos como unidade de agregação dos dados eleitorais para a Câmara dos Deputados. Na primeira parte do artigo, mostramos que há grande variabilidade no índice entre os estados e entre as sucessivas eleições; na segunda parte, realizamos um teste estatístico do impacto explicativo de variáveis políticas, econômicas e sociais na variação da volatilidade eleitoral em duas dimensões: a temporal (entre as eleições) e a espacial (entre os estados). Os resultados mostram a importância de algumas variáveis políticas na explicação da variação da volatilidade eleitoral brasileira.

Abstract

Abstract

The index of electoral volatility has been used as the principal indicators of institutionalization of party systems in recently democratic countries. However, comparative studies usually analyze the index at a highly elevated level of aggregated data, evaluating the variation only in national terms. From this perspective, our goal is to analyze Brazilian electoral volatility by taking the twenty-seven federal units as units of aggregation of the electoral data for the Chamber of Deputies. In the first part of the article, we show that there is great variability in the index between the states and between the successive elections; in the second part, we run a statistical test of the explanatory impact of political, economic, and social variables in the variation of electoral volatility in two dimensions: temporal (between the elections) and spatial (between the states). The results demonstrate the importance of some political variables to explaining variation of Brazilian electoral volatility.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 46 , Issue 3 , 2011 , pp. 46 - 68
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 by the Latin American Studies Association

Footnotes

Agradecemos aos avaliadores anônimos pelas valiosas críticas e sugestões, as quais certamente contribuíram de maneira significativa para o aprimoramento metodológico e analítico deste trabalho. Obviamente, eventuais falhas remanescentes são de nossa inteira responsabilidade.

References

Bibliografia

Ames, Barry 2001 The Deadlock of Democracy in Brazil Interests, Identities, and Institutions in Comparative Politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Amorim Neto, Octávio, e Cox, Gary 1997 “Electoral Institutions, Cleavage Structures, and the Number of Parties”. American Journal of Political Science 41 (1): 149–174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bakke, Elisabeth, e Sitter, Nick 2005 “Party Competition and Strategy in Central Europe since 1990”. PartyPolitics 11 (2): 243–263.Google Scholar
Barros, R., Henriques, R. e Mendonça, R. 2000 “Desigualdade e pobreza no Brasil: Retrato de uma estabilidade inaceitável”. Revista Brasileira de Ciência Política 15 (42): 123–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartolini, Stefano, e Mair, Peter 1990 Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilization of European Electorate (1885–1985). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Baum, C. F., Schaffer, M. E. e Stillman, S. 2007 ivreg2: Stata module for extended instrumental variables/2SLS, GMM and AC/HAC, LIML, and k-class regression. Boston College, Department of Economics, Statistical Software Components S425401. http://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s425401.html.Google Scholar
Bielasiack, Jack 2002 “The Institutionalization of Electoral Party Systems in Postcommunist States”. Comparative Politics 34 (1): 190–210.Google Scholar
Birch, Sarah 2001 “Electoral Systems and Party System Stability in Post-Communist Europe”. 97° meeting anual da American Political Science Review, San Francisco, 30 August–2 September.Google Scholar
Birch, Sarah 2003 Electoral Systems and Political Transformation in Post-Communist Europe. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braga, Maria do Socorro Sousa 2006 O processo partidário-brasileiro: Padrões de competição política (1982–2002). São Paulo: Humanitas.Google Scholar
Cangussu, Ricardo Corrêa, Salvato, Márcio Antônio e Nakabashi, Luciano 2010 “Uma análise do capital humano sobre o nível de renda dos estados brasileiros: MRW versus Mincer”. Estudos Economicos 40 (1): 153–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Costanzi, Rogerio Nagamine 2004 “Evolução do emprego formal no Brasil e implicações para as políticas públicas de geração de emprego e renda”. IPEA, Working Paper N° 1039.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary 1997 Making Votes Count. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crewe, Ivor 1985 “Electoral Change in Western Democracies: A Framework for Analysis”. Em Electoral Change in Western Democracies: Patterns and Sources of Volatility, edited by Crewe, I. and Denver, D., 1–22. London: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Desposato, Scott 2006 “Parties for Rent? Ambition, Ideology, and Party Switching in Brazil's Chamber of Deputies”. American Journal of Political Science 50 (1): 62–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erson, S., e Lane, J. E. 1998 “Electoral Instability and Party System Change in Western Europe”. Em Comparing Party System Change, edited by Pennings, P. e Lane, J. E., 20–35. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Ferreira, F., e Barros, R. 1999 “The Slippery Slope: Explaining the Increase in Extreme Poverty in Urban Brazil: 1976–1996”. Working Paper, Departamento de Economia, Pontifícia Universidade Católica.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris 1981 Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Fornos, C., Power, T. e Garand, J. 2004 “Explaining Voter Turnout in Latin America (1980 to 2000)”. Comparative Political Studies 37 (8): 909–940.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heath, Oliver 2005 “Party Systems, Political Cleavages and Electoral Volatility in India: A State-Wise Analysis (1998–1999)”. Electoral Studies 24:177–199.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel 1968 Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Kiewet, Roderick 1983 Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Kinzo, M. D. 2005 “Os partidos no eleitorado: Percepções públicas e laços partidários no Brasil”. Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais 20 (57): 65–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Korasteleva, Elena 2000 “Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Belarus: Explaining the Paradox”. Party Politics 6 (3): 343–358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krupavicius, A. 1999 Party Systems in Central East Europe: Dimensions of System Stability. Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.Google Scholar
Kuenzi, Michelle, e Lambright, Gina 2001 “Party System Institutionalization in 30 African Countries”. Party Politics 7 (4): 423–446.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lamounier, Bolivar 1987 “Perspectivas da Consolidação Democrática: O Caso Brasileiro”. Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais 4 (2): 320–350.Google Scholar
Lamounier, Bolivar 1990 Partidos e utopias: O Brasil no limiar dos anos 90. São Paulo: Loyola.Google Scholar
Lamounier, Bolivar, e Meneguello, Rachel 1986 Partidos e consolidação democrática: O caso brasileiro. São Paulo: Brasiliense.Google Scholar
Lawson, Kay 1999 “Cleavages, Parties, and Voters”. Em Cleavages, Parties and Voters: Studies from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania, edited by Lawson, K., Rommele, A. e Karasimeonov, G., 19–35. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael 1998 Economics and Elections: The Major Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael, e Stegmaier, Mary 2000 “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes”. Annual Review of Political Science 3:183–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lima, Olavo Brasil de Jr. 1983 Partidos políticos brasileiros. Rio de Janeiro: Graal.Google Scholar
Lima, Olavo Brasil de Jr. 1991 Sistema eleitoral brasileiro: Teoria e prática. Rio de Janeiro: Rio Fundo Editora.Google Scholar
Lima, Olavo Brasil de Jr. 1997 O sistema partidário brasileiro. Rio de Janeiro: Fundação Getúlio Vargas.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin 1960 Political Man: The Social Basis of Politics. New York: Doubleday.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin, e Rokkan, Stein 1967 Party Systems and Voter Alignment: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott 1995 “Brazil: Weak Parties, Feckless Democracy?” Em Building Democratic Institutions: Parties and Party Systems in Latin America, edited by Mainwaring, S. e Scully, T., 354–398. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott 1998 “Electoral Volatility in Brazil”. Party Politics 4:523–546.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott 1999 Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization: The Case of Brazil. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, e Scully, Timothy R. 1995 Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, e Torcal, Mariano 2003 “Social Cleavage, the Anchoring of the Vote, and Party System Stability: Latin America and Western Europe”, Working Papers Online Series, Departamento de Ciencia Política y Relaciones Internacionales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (accessada 20 julho de 2011 no http://www.uam.es/centros/derecho/cpolitica/wpapers.html).Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, e Torcal, Mariano 2006 “Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory after the Third Wave of Democratization.” Em Handbook of Political Parties, edited by Katz, R. e Crotty, W., 204–227. London: Sage Publications.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, e Zoco, Edurne 2007 “Political Sequences and the Stabilization of Interparty Competition: Electoral Volatility in Old and New Democracies”. Party Politics 13 (2): 155–178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mair, Peter 1997 Party System Change: Approaches and Interpretations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Melo, Carlos Ranulfo 2002 Retirando as cadeiras do lugar: Migração partidária na Câmara dos Deputados (1985–2002). Belo Horizonte: Editora da UFMG.Google Scholar
Morgenstern, Scott 2002 “Explaining Legislative Politics in Latin América”. Em Legislative Politics in Latin America, edited by Morgenstern, S. e Nacif, B., 413–444. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mozaffar, S., e Scarrit, J. 2005 “The Puzzle of African Party Systems”. Party Politics 4:399–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mozaffar, S., Scarrit, J. e Galacich, G. 2003 “Electoral Institutions, Ethnopolitical Cleavages, and Party Systems in Africa's Emerging Democracies”. American Political Science Review 93 (3): 379–390.Google Scholar
Nooruddin, Irfan, e Chhibber, Pradeep 2005 “Unstable Politics: Electoral Volatility in the Indian States”. American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, September 1–4, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
Olson, David 1998 “Party Formation and Party System Consolidation in the New Democracies of Central Europe”. Political Studies 46 (3): 432–464.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ordeshook, Peter, e Shvetsova, Olga 1994 “Ethnic Heterogeneity, District Magnitude, and the Number of Parties”. American Journal of Political Science 38 (1): 100–123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pedersen, Mogens 1979 “The Dynamics of European Party Systems: Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility”. European Journal of Political Research 7 (1): 1–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pedersen, Mogens 1983 “Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility in European Party Systems (1948–1977)”. Em West European Party Systems: Continuity and Change, edited by Daalder, H. e Mair, P., 29–66. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Peres, Paulo 2002 “Sistema partidário e instabilidade eleitoral no Brasil”. Em Partidos no Cone-Sul: Novos ângulos de pesquisa, organizado por Pinto, C. Jardim e Santos, A., 13–46. Rio de Janeiro: Conrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr. 1982 Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability, and Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr., e Whitten, Guy D. 1993 “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context”. American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powers, Denis, e Cox, James 1997 “Echoes from the Past: The Relationship between Satisfaction with Economic Reforms and Voting Behavior in Poland”. American Political Science Review 91 (3): 617–633.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam 1975 “Institutionalization of Voting Patterns, or Is Mobilization the Source of Decay”. American Political Science Review 69 (1): 49–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reich, Gary 2004 “The Evolution of New Party Systems: Are Early Elections Exceptional?”. Electoral Studies 23:235–250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reis, A. C. 1991 “A participação eleitoral e seus correlatos econömicos”. Em O sistema eleitoral brasileiro: Teoria e prática, organizado por Lima, O. B. Jr., 13–38. Rio de Janeiro: Rio Fundo Editora.Google Scholar
Remmer, Karen 1991 “The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s”. American Political Science Review 85 (3): 777–800.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Resende, G. M., e Figueiredo, Lizia 2005 “Testes de robustez: Uma aplicação para os determinantes das taxas de crescimento do produto interno bruto per capita dos estados brasileiros”. Working Paper n° 1124, Instituto de Política Econömica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro.Google Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth, e Wibbels, Erik 1999 “Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations”. American Journal of Political Science 93 (3): 575–590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, R., Munro, N. e Mackie, T. 1998 Elections in Central and Eastern Europe since 1990. Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.Google Scholar
Sartori, Giovanni 1976 Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sikk, Allan 2005 “How Unstable? Volatility and the Genuinely New Parties in Eastern Europe”. European Journal of Political Research 44:391–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sjöblom, Gunnar 1983 “Political Change and Political Accountability: A Propositional Inventory of Causes and Effects”. Em West European Party Systems: Continuity and Change, edited by Daalder, H. e Mair, P., 369–404. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Tavits, Margit 2005 “The Development of Stable Party Support: Electoral Dynamics in Post-Communist Europe”. American Journal of Political Science 49 (2): 283–298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tóka, Gábor 1997 Political Parties and Democratic Consolidation in East Central Europe. Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.Google Scholar
Toole, James 2000 “Government Formation and Party System Stabilization in East Central Europe”. Party Politics 6 (4): 441–461.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tucker, Joshua 2002 “The First Decade of Post-Communist Elections and Voting: What Have We Studied, and How Have We Studied It?” Annual Review of Political Science 5:271–304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar