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Measuring the Individual-Level Determinants of Social Insurance Preferences: Survey Evidence from the 2008 Argentine Pension Nationalization

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

Matthew Carnes  and
Isabela Mares
Matthew Carnes
Affiliation:
Georgetown University
Isabela Mares
Affiliation:
Columbia University
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Abstract

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This study employs an original, nationally representative survey of citizens in Argentina to understand the economic and political factors that shape individual-level preferences for social insurance. In the past two decades, Latin American democracies have undergone significant changes in their social welfare institutions, in some cases dramatically reversing course from previous policies. We develop a theoretical framework to explain how and when citizens shift their preferences for competing social policy proposals. We emphasize the role of dissatisfaction with prevailing policies in creating political opportunities for the introduction of sweeping reforms. Our survey capitalizes on the 2008 pension reform in Argentina to test competing hypotheses regarding preferences for different policies of old-age insurance. We find that dissatisfaction with existing private policies increases individual-level support for policy reform across all citizens, whereas partisanship has a more restricted effect, shaping preferences only among middle- and low-income respondents.

Resumo

Resumo

Este estudio utiliza una encuesta original y con cobertura nacional en Argentina para determinar los factores políticos y económicos que influyen en la formación de las preferencias individuales sobre distintos modelos de seguros sociales. En las últimas dos décadas, muchas democracias latinoamericanas han implementado cambios significativos en sus instituciones de bienestar social, alterando —en algunos casos radicalmente— sus políticas previas. Ofrecemos un modelo teórico para explicar cómo y cuándo los ciudadanos cambian sus preferencias entre distintas propuestas políticas de bienestar social. Atribuimos un rol fundamental al descontento popular con las políticas vigentes en la creación de oportunidades para la introducción de reformas radicales. Nuestra encuesta recurre a la reforma de pensiones en 2008 en Argentina para examinar diferentes hipótesis acerca de las preferencias de los individuos sobre distintos tipos de pensiones. Los resultados muestran que el nivel socioeconómico y la experiencia personal de políticas previas condicionan el efecto de la afiliación partidaria en la formación de preferencias sobre cambios en los programas de seguros sociales.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 48 , Issue 3 , 2013 , pp. 108 - 129
Copyright
Copyright © 2013 by the Latin American Studies Association

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