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Energy Production, Imports, and Consumption in Revolutionary Cuba

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 October 2022

Jorge F. Pérez-López
Jorge F. Pérez-López*
Affiliation:
U.S. Department of Labor
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The extensive post-1973 literature analyzing and comparing national energy policies across countries has generally excluded Cuba, purportedly because of the unavailability of appropriate data. As a result, very little serious work has been carried out assessing Cuba's current energy balances and the efficacy of its policies in adjusting to the new global energy situation. While it is incontrovertible that available official Cuban energy data are weak, it can be argued that, when supplemented with data from other sources and with reasonable estimates, they can serve as the basis for tentative analysis of energy policies. This note attempts to lay the groundwork for such future analyses by bringing together and evaluating energy supply and consumption data covering the first two decades of revolutionary government. While the emphasis is on the period 1959–78, pre-1959 data are introduced when appropriate in an effort to put recent trends in historical perspective. The first section focuses on primary energy production and considers the contribution of commercial and noncommercial sources to domestic energy supply. In the second section, imports of primary energy products are considered and their role in total energy supply evaluated. The last section examines tentatively some aspects of Cuban energy consumption and attempts to relate consumption patterns to policies that were in effect during the period.

Type
Research Reports and Notes
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 16 , Issue 3 , 1981 , pp. 111 - 137
Copyright
Copyright © 1981 by the University of Texas Press

References

Notes

* The views expressed in this paper are strictly those of the author and do not represent the views of the Department of Labor.

1. An important exception is Rafael Fermoselle, “Cuba's Energy Balances and Future Energy Picture,” Cuban Studies / Estudios Cubanos 9, no. 2 (July 1979): 45–58. However, Fermoselle's work covers only the period 1967–76 and the sources of the data he used are not clearly spelled out.

2. See Herbert J. Sawyer, “Latin America after 1920,” in Edgar Wesley Owen, ed., Trek of the Oil Finders (Tulsa, Okla.: American Association of Petroleum Geologists, 1975), chap. 20.

3. For an example of this view, see Ernesto Guevara, “La industrialización de Cuba,” in Universidad Popular, Séptimo Ciclo, Economía y planificación (La Habana, June 1961), pp. 35–36.

4. It has been reported that 8.3 percent of total Soviet economic and technical assistance to Cuba during 1960–73 was devoted to geological surveys, with a significant portion allocated to petroleum exploration. Cole Blasier, “COMECON in Cuban Development,” in Cole Blasier and Carmelo Mesa-Lago, eds., Cuba in the World (Pittsburgh, Pa.: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1979), p. 230.

5. Larry Auldridge, “Cuba's Oil Fields Now Add to Ten,” The Oil and Gas Journal (2 May 1977), p. 305; Rafael Fermoselle, “Cuba busca petróleo en sus playas,” Petróleo Internacional (Oct. 1979), pp. 69–72.

6. Fernando G. Dávalos, “Funciona la Termoeléctrica ‘Raúl Martínez’ con gas natural de Cristales,” Granma, 12 June 1968, p. 4.

7. A comprehensive study of Latin America's hydroelectric resources by the Economic Commission for Latin America, published in 1962, estimated Cuba's hydroelectric potential at less than 100 Mw. See “Hydroelectric Resources in Latin America: Their Measurement and Utilization,” Economic Bulletin for Latin America 7, no. 1 (Feb. 1962), p. 86.

8. U.S. Department of Commerce, Investment in Cuba (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1956), p. 103.

9. “La Hidroeléctrica ‘Robustiano León’, un tesoro escondido en la profundidad de una montaña,” Granma, 10 June 1977, p. 4; “En plena producción hidroeléctrica del Hanabanilla,” Granma, 15 Feb. 1968, p. 3.

10. Joaquín Oramas, “Kerosene por el alcohol: un cambio que fortalece a nuestra ganadería,” Granma, 3 Mar. 1969, p. 6; “El uso de kerosene por el alcohol: un cambio de hábito en pro de la economía,” Granma, 14 Feb. 1969, p. 6.

11. Sugar cane milled data are from Cuba, Junta Central de Planificación, Anuario Estadístico de Cuba, various years, and Comité Estatal de Estadísticas, Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 1978.

12. A study of sixteen sugar mills in the Cienfuegos region in 1951 found bagasse-to-milled cane ratios by weight ranging from .244 to .324. See José Ramón Ruíz, Una estrategia de fomento de largo alcance (La Habana: Cia. Thomas F. Turull, S.A., 1952), p. 52. For the 1959 sugar crop, the national bagasse-to-milled cane ratio can be calculated as .254 using data from Cuba, Junta Central de Planificación, Departamento de Recursos Naturales, Estudio de producción y consumo de energía eléctrica y uso de combustibles en los centrales azucareros (La Habana, Feb. 1960), table 3-C; for 1968, the national average was reported as .279 in Ramón Quesada González, “Consumo de energía térmica en la producción de azúcar cruda,” CubaAzúcar (July-Sept. 1969), p. 6. The assumption of a national bagasse-to-milled cane fraction of .250 is also made by Francisco García López and José A. Clark, “Combinaciones de evaporación de alta eficiencia y producción de bagazo y energía eléctrica,” CubaAzúcar (Oct.-Dec. 1969), pp. 17–31.

13. “Introducción en Cuba del sistema australiano de corte,” Economía y Desarrollo, no. 15 (Jan.-Feb. 1973), pp. 48–71; “Comportamiento industrial de la caña quemada,” CubaAzúcar (Apr.-June 1972), pp. 33–41; “Efectos de la quema de los campos en la producción de azúcar,” Economía y Desarrollo, no. 10 (Mar.-Apr. 1972), pp. 92–118.

14. In 1959, 1.7 percent of the bagasse produced was used for nonfuel industrial purposes. See Estudio de producción y consumo de energía eléctrica, table 4. In 1975, the share was reported as 4.3 percent in United Nations Development Program, “Country Programme for Cuba,” DP/GC/CUB/R.2, mimeographed (June 1976), p. 29.

15. Cuba, Junta Central de Planificación, Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 1974 and more recent volumes.

16. Cuba Económica y Financiera 26, no. 301 (Apr. 1951):88.

17. Cuba, Junta Central de Planificación, Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 1974 and more recent volumes.

18. Factors to convert production of natural gas and hydroelectricity to the standard unit were obtained from United Nations, Statistical Office, World Energy Supplies 1950–1974, Series J, no. 19 (New York: United Nations, 1976), p. xviii. Conversion factors for ethyl alcohol, fuelwood, and charcoal from Federal Energy Administration, National Energy Information Center, Energy Interrelationships (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1977), pp. 16–17. For bagasse, the caloric content depends on the moisture level. A conversion factor of 3 MT of relatively dry bagasse (30% moisture) equivalent to 1 MT of crude petroleum is given in Energy Interrelationships, p. 16 and also used by Héctor Danilo, “Cuba: impacto mundial de un proyecto azucarero,” Panorama Económico Latinoamericano 1, no. 43 (31 Oct. 1977), p. 3. However, in Cuban sugar mills, bagasse is generally burned directly, avoiding handling for air or sun drying, but resulting in higher moisture levels. Ruíz, Una estrategia, reports bagasse moisture content for 1951 ranging from 44.10 to 50.79% (p. 35); Quesada González, “Consumo de energía térmica,” reports the national average bagasse moisture content at 49.36% for 1968. For 1974 and 1975, bagasse moisture content of 47.76 and 49.67%, respectively, are reported in Magali E. Rodríguez and Raul Gutiérrez, “Estudio sobre la calidad del bagazo,” ATAC 37, no. 1 (Jan.-Feb. 1978):22. Thus, assuming an average bagasse moisture content of 50% for the entire period 1959–78, and following a table relating bagasse moisture content and energy value in megacalories given in Quesada González (“Consumo de energía térmica,” p. 3), it has been estimated that 5.6 MT of bagasse (50% moisture) are equivalent in thermal value to 1 MT of crude petroleum of medium gravity. It should be noted that the conversion factor used here is equivalent to another factor, 6 MT of bagasse = 1 MT of distillate fuel oil, often used in the literature. See Herly Noa Silverio, “Aspectos económicos de la industrialización del bagazo,” ATAC 37, no. 2 (May-June 1978):25.

19. Calculated from data in Cuba, Ministerio de Hacienda, Dirección General de Estadística, Comercio Exterior 1950–1951 (La Habana, 1952) and subsequent volumes. Origin of imports obtained from the same sources.

20. For example, imports of Soviet petroleum and petroleum products in 1962 accounted for 99.97% by weight of imports in these categories. For 1963, 1964, and 1968–72, the corresponding shares of Soviet imports of petroleum and petroleum products were 99.98, 99.60, and 99.77, respectively. Calculated from data in Cuba, Junta Central de Planificación, Dirección General de Estadística, Comercio Exterior de Cuba: Importación 1962 and volumes for 1963, 1964, and Cuba, Junta Central de Planificación, Anuario Estadístico de Cuba, various volumes.

21. In a departure from established practice, the official statistical yearbook for 1976, Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 1976, did not include trade data for 1976. See a review of this volume by Carmelo Mesa-Lago in Cuban Studies / Estudios Cubanos 9, no. 2 (July 1979):108–9. The latest data included in the recently published Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 1978 refer to 1976.

22. Ministerstvo Vneshnei Torgovli SSSR, Vneshniaia Torgovlia SSSR v 1977 g. (Moscow, 1978). The practice of suppressing quantity of energy exports refers to trade with each country, including Cuba.

23. Calculated from Cuba, Junta Central de Planificación, Dirección General de Estadística, Comercio Exterior de Cuba 1 (La Habana, 1961).

24. Calculated from Cuba, Junta Central de Planificación, Dirección General de Estadística, Comercio Exterior de Cuba: Importación 1962 and volumes for 1963, 1964.

25. Cuba, Junta Central de Planificación, Anuario Estadístico de Cuba, various years, and Cuba, Comité Estatal de Estadísticas, Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 1978.

26. Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Rocznik Statystyczny Handlu Zagranicznego 1965 (Warsaw, 1966) and volumes for 1966, 1967, 1968, 1970, 1973, 1974.

27. United Nations, Statistical Office, World Energy Supplies 1950–1974, and more recent volumes.

28. Joel Darmstadter et al., Energy in the World Economy (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1971), pp. 32–39, and Joel Damstadter, “Energy Consumption: Trends and Patterns,” in Sam H. Schurr, ed., Energy, Economic Growth and the Environment (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1971), pp. 176–85.

29. J. G. Polach, “The Development of Energy in East Europe,” in U.S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee, Economic Developments in Countries of Eastern Europe (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1970), pp. 364–66.

30. Robert F. Halvorsen and Judith A. Thornton, “Comparative Responses to the Energy Crisis in Different Economic Systems: An Extensive Analysis,” Journal of Comparative Economics 2, no. 2 (June 1978):197–98.

31. Ibid., p. 191.

32. Estimates of GNP at current prices for 1950–58 originate from the Cuban National Bank. A GNP series at constant 1953 prices was derived by deflating GNP at current prices by an index of retail prices of food items from Cuban Economic Research Project, A Study on Cuba (Coral Gables, Fla.: University of Miami Press, 1965), p. 474. For 1959, GNP at constant 1953 prices was estimated to have equalled level for 1957 following Felipe Pazos, “Desarrollo insuficiente y depauperación económica,” Cuadernos, supplement to no. 47 (Mar.-Apr. 1961):49.

33. Carmelo Mesa-Lago, “Cuban Statistics Revisited,” Cuban Studies / Estudios Cubanos 9, no. 21 (July 1979):61–62.

34. The actual GMP and GSP data used were compiled by Carmelo Mesa-Lago. See his The Economy of Socialist Cuba: A Two-Decade Appraisal (Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press, 1981), table 4.

35. The series in current dollars is published, e.g., in World Bank, 1978 World Bank Atlas (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1979). The series in constant dollars is available from the World Bank.

36. When the equations were estimated without the time trend, the estimated elasticities increased from zero to about .36 and were highly significant, while the explanatory power of the equations fell substantially. These statistical results suggest that multicollinearity between the economic activity variable and the time trend is present and that economic activity has no influence on energy consumption independent of a simple time trend.

37. Reportedly, in 1968, the value of the molasses needed to produce one metric ton of ethyl alcohol was about six times the world market price of a metric ton of kerosene. See Granma, 3 Jan. 1969, p. 4.

38. Oramas, “Kerosene por el alcohol,” and “El uso de kerosene.”

39. Granma, 26 Apr. 1971, p. 7; 3 May 1971, p. 3.

40. Revolución, 2 Oct. 1965, p. 1.

41. Granma, 29 Sept. 1970, p. 3.

42. “Mas patrullas ‘click,‘ menos apagones,” Granma, 27 Sept. 1971, p. 4. In late 1971, there were 31,112 patrols with 136,429 youths operating nationwide; by September 1977, membership in the patrols had swelled to several hundred thousand. See Granma, 26 Sept. 1977, p. 6.

43. Granma, 26 Apr. 1971, p. 7.

44. “Informe sobre el sistema de cobro diferido del servicio eléctrico,” Bohemia 71, no. 1 (5 Jan. 1979):42–44.

45. United Nations, Statistical Office, Statistical Yearbook 1959 (New York: United Nations, 1959), p. 332. Another source gives the number of taxis in Cuba on 31 Dec. 1957 at 136,574. For data, see Paul C. Roberts and Mukhtar Hamour, eds., Cuba 1968 (Los Angeles: Latin American Center, University of California, 1970), p. 116. Castro has estimated the stock of automobiles in 1958 at 300,000. See Granma, 3 Jan. 1968, p. 3.

46. United Nations, Statistical Yearbook 1959.

47. For an interesting discussion of the conditions leading to the imposition of the controls and their aftermath, see Edward Boorstein, The Economic Transformation of Cuba (New York: Monthly Review Press, 1968), chaps. 3 and 4.

48. The regulations were published in Granma, 3 Jan. 1968, p. 6.

49. Zoila González-Maicas, “La matriz de insumo-producto: un nuevo instrumento de planificación industrial en Cuba,” Nuestra Industria. Revista Económica 2, no. 8 (Aug. 1964):68–75.

50. Enrique González-Romero and Zoila González-Maicas, “Algunas contribuciones al análisis y utilización de la matriz de insumo producto,” Nuestra Industria. Revista Económica 3, no. 12 (Apr. 1965):3–25.

51. Leontief was shown an input-output table for 1965 during a visit to Cuba in early 1969. It was prepared at the level of 171 industries, aggregated to 97 industries. See Wassily Leontief, “Notes on a Visit to Cuba,” The New York Review of Books (29 Aug. 1969), p. 15.

52. According to Castro, the principal users of fuel oil in 1967 were the electric, sugar, cement, and nickel industries; the principal users of gas oil were agriculture, transportation, the merchant marine, construction, fishing, and the sugar industry. Granma, 3 Jan. 1968, p. 5.

53. At that time, it was estimated that the three thousand industrial steam boilers across the nation were operating with an average thermal efficiency of 64%; raising their efficiency to 81% would mean a decline in fuel oil consumption of 160,000 MT per year. See Orlando Gómez, “A propósito del Seminario Nacional sobre Calderas,” Granma, 19 Mar. 1971, p. 5.

54. Granma, 3 May 1971, p. 3.

55. Granma, 3 Jan. 1968, p. 5.

56. “Cinco veces mas capacidad de generación eléctrica,” Bohemia (24 Feb. 1978), p. 52.

57. “Para 1975 la generación de electricidad crecerá en mas del ocho por ciento por encima de lo obtenido en 1974,” Granma, 25 Jan. 1975, p. 4; “Incrementarán en 1300 Mw la capacidad de generación eléctrica,” Granma, 27 Jan. 1977, p. 2.

58. “Cinco veces mas capacidad,” p. 53.

59. “Produjo la industria eléctrica mas de 6400 milliones de kwh en 1977,” Granma, 29 Dec. 1977, p. 2.

60. For example, a 5 Mw plant uses, on average, 420 grams of petroleum products per kwh generated; for a 30 Mw plant, consumption is 294 grams/kwh; for a 125 Mw plant, 236 grams/kwh; and for a 169 Mw plant, 217 grams/kwh. “La construcción es una tarea hermosa, creadora y transformadora,” Bohemia 70, no. 51 (22 Dec. 1978):44.

61. “¿Cuánto petróleo puede ahorrarse en la industria azucarera?,” Granma, 16 Feb. 1968, p. 3.

62. For the 1975 harvest, 25% of sugar cane cutting and 98% of loading were done with machines. It was projected that for the 1978–79 harvest, 50% of cutting and virtually all loading would be mechanized. See Fidel Castro, “Del Informe del Comité Central del PCC al I Congreso,” Economía y Desarrollo, no. 36 (Jul.–Aug. 1976):18; “Hacia una zafra superior digna del XX Aniversario,” Granma, 27 Nov. 1978, p. 1.

63. “¿Cuanto petróleo?”

64. Juan Varela-Pérez, “Consolida sus bases y se define la política energética en la industria azucarera,” Granma, 15 Nov. 1978, p. 3.

65. Theodore H. Moran, “The International Political Economy of Cuban Nickel Development,” in Cole Blasier and Carmelo Mesa-Lago, eds., Cuba in the World (Pittsburgh, Pa.: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1979), p. 262.

66. Ibid., p. 271, n. 31.

67. Granma, 3 Jan. 1968, p. 5.