Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T19:52:00.708Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

An Electorate Adrift?: Public Opinion and the Quality of Democracy in Mexico

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 October 2022

James A. McCann
Affiliation:
Purdue University
Chappell Lawson
Affiliation:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

When citizens lack stable political attitudes, leaders cannot easily be held accountable for their record in office, party system consolidation becomes more difficult, and public opinion is unable to offer much substantive guidance about policy-making. Ultimately, democratic governance is likely to suffer. In this article, we analyze a recent four-wave panel survey to assess the stability of political attitudes in Mexico. We find that the degree of attitude stability in Mexico varies across different types of dispositions. Although citizens hold reasonably firm views about the country's main political actors, preferences over issues are less consistent. These findings suggest both possibilities and constraints for democratic governance.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 by the University of Texas Press

Footnotes

We thank Jorge Domínguez, Alejandro Poiré, Holli Semetko, Peter Ward, and four anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. This article was completed while McCann was a Guest Scholar at the Brookings Institution, Governance Studies Program, and Lawson was a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The data are drawn from the Mexico 2000 Panel Study; replication command files are available upon request. Organizers of the Mexico 2000 Panel Study include Miguel Basáñez, Roderic Camp, Wayne Cornelius, Jorge Domínguez, Federico Estévez, Joseph Klesner, Chappell Lawson (Principal Investigator), Beatriz Magaloni, James McCann, Alejandro Moreno, Pablo Parás, and Alejandro Poiré. Support for the Mexico 2000 Panel Study was provided by the National Science Foundation (SES-9905703) and Reforma newspaper. The full data set, questionnaires, and sampling details are publicly available at: http://web.mit.edu/polisci/faculty/C.Lawson.html.

References

REFERENCES

ACHEN, CHRISTOPHER H. 1975Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey Response.” American Political Science Review 69: 1218–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
ALMOND, GABRIEL, and VERBA, SIDNEY 1963 The Civic Culture. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
ALWIN, DUANE F., and KROSNICK, JON 1991The Reliability of Survey Attitude Measurement.” Sociological Methods and Research. 20 (1): 139–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
ASHER, HERBERT B. 1974 “Some Consequences of Measurement Error in Surveys.” American Journal of Political Science 18(May): 469–85.Google Scholar
BUTLER, DAVID and STOKES, DONALD 1969 Political Change in Britain. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
BRUHN, KATHLEEN, and LEVY WITH EMILIO ZEPADÚA, DANIEL C. 2001 Mexico: The Struggle for Democratic Development. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
CAMP, RODERIC AI 1996 Politics in Mexico. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
CAMPBELL, ANGUS, CONVERSE, PHILIP, MILLER, WARREN, and STOKES, DONALD 1960 The American Voter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
CONVERSE, PHILIP 1970Attitudes and Nonattitudes.” In The Quantitative Analysis of Social Problems, edited by Tufte, E., 168–89. Reading, Mass.: Addison Wesley.Google Scholar
CONVERSE, PHILIP, and DUPEUX, GEORGES 1962Politicization of the Electorate in France and the United States.” Public Opinion Quarterly 26: 123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
CORNELIUS, WAYNE A. 1996 Mexican Politics in Transition: The Breakdown of a One-Party-Dominant Regime. La Jolla, Calif.: Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California at San Diego.Google Scholar
DALTON, RUSSELL 2002 Citizen Politics. New York: Chatham House.Google Scholar
DELLI CARPINI, MICHAEL, and KEETER, SCOTT 1996 What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
DOMÍNGUEZ, JORGE I., and LAWSON, CHAPPELL, EDS. 2003 Mexico's Pivotal Democratic Election: Campaign Effects, Voting Behavior, and the Presidential Race of 2000. Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
DOMÍNGUEZ, JORGE I., and MCCANN, JAMES A. 1995Shaping Mexico's Electoral Arena: The Construction of Partisan Cleavages in the 1988 and 1991 National Elections.” American Political Science Review. 89 (March): 3448.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DOMÍNGUEZ, JORGE I., and MCCANN, JAMES A. 1996 Democratizing Mexico: Public Opinion and Electoral Choices. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
DOMÍNGUEZ, JORGE I. and POIRÉ, ALEJANDRO, EDS. 1999 Toward Mexico's Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
FELDMAN, STANLEY 1988Structure and Consistency in Public Opinion: The Role of Core Beliefs and Values.” American Journal of Political Science 32 (2): 416–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
FEREJOHN, JOHN 1999Accountability and Authority: Toward a Political Theory of Electoral Accountability.” In Democracy, Accountability, and Representation, edited by Przeworski, Adam, 131–53. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
FINKEL, STEVEN 1995 Causal Analysis with Panel Data. Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences. Vol. 105. Thousand Oaks: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
GRAYSON, GEORGE W. 2000 A Guide to the 2000 Mexican Presidential Election: An Election Studies Report of the CSIS Americas Program. Mexico Project. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, June.Google Scholar
GREEN, DONALD P. and PALMQUIST, BRADLEY 1990Of Artifacts and Partisan Instability.” American Journal of Political Science 34 (3): 872902.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
GREEN, DONALD P, and YOON, DAVID H. 2002Reconciling Individual and Aggregate Evidence Concerning Partisan Stability: Applying Time-Series Models to Panel Survey Data.” Political Analysis 10 (1): 124.Google Scholar
HERBST, SUSAN 1998 Reading Public Opinion: How Political Actors View the Democratic Process. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
INGLEHART, RONALD 1985Aggregate Stability and Individual-Level Flux in Mass Belief Systems: The Level of Analysis Paradox.” American Political Science Review 79 (1): 97116.Google Scholar
KAASE, MAX, NEWTON, KENNETH, and SCARBROUGH, ELINOR 1997Beliefs in Government.” Politics 17 (2): 135–39.Google Scholar
KEY, V. O. 1966 The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936–60. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
KLESNER, JOSEPH L. 1993 “Modernization, Economic Crisis, and Electoral Alignment in Mexico.” Mexican Studies/Estudios Mexicanos (Summer): 187223.Google Scholar
KLESNER, JOSEPH L. 1994Realignment or Dealignment? Consequences of Economic Crisis and Restructuring for the Mexican Party System.” In The Politics of Economic Restructuring, edited by María L. Cook, Middlebrook, Kevin, and Juan Molinar Horcasitas, 159–91. La Jolla: Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California at San Diego.Google Scholar
KOHUT, ANDREW, TOTH, ROBERT C., and BOWMAN, CAROL 1994Mixed Message About Press Freedom on both Sides of Atlantic.” Times Mirror Center for the People and the Press news release, 16 March.Google Scholar
KROSNICK, JON 1991The Stability of Political Preferences: Comparisons of Symbolic and Nonsymbolic Attitudes.” American Journal of Political Science 35 (May): 547–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LAWSON, CHAPPELL 1999Why Cárdenas Won: The 1997 Elections in Mexico City.” In Towards Mexico's Democratization: Campaigns, Elections and Public Opinion, edited by Jorge I. Domínguez and Poiré, Alejandro, 147–73. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
LAWSON, CHAPPELL 2000 “Mexico's Unfinished Transition: Democratization and Authoritarian Enclaves in Mexico.” Estudios Mexicanos/Mexican Studies (Summer): 267–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LIPPMANN, WALTER 1993 The Phantom Public. New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Publishers [1927].Google Scholar
LIPPMANN, WALTER 1998 Public Opinion. New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Publishers [1922].Google Scholar
MACHIAVELLI, NICCOLÒ 1979 Discourses on the First Ten Books of Titus Livius. Translated and edited by Bondanella, Peter and Musa, Mark. New York: Penguin Books [1531].Google Scholar
MAGALONI, BEATRIZ, and POIRÉ, ALEJANDRO 2003 “The Issues, the Vote, and the Mandate for Change.” In Mexico's Pivotal Democratic Transition: Campaign Effects, Voting Behavior, and the Presidential Race of 2000, edited by Jorge Domínguez and Chappell Lawson.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MORENO, ALEJANDRO 1998Party Competition and the Issue of Democracy: Ideological Space in Mexican Elections.” In Governing Mexico: Political Parties and Elections, edited by Serrano, Monica. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
MORENO, ALEJANDRO 2003 “The Effects of Negative Campaigning on Mexican Voters.” In Mexico's Pivotal Democratic Transition: Campaign Effects, Voting Behavior, and the Presidential Race of 2000, edited by Jorge Domínguez and Chappell Lawson.Google Scholar
O'DONNELL, GUILLERMO 1994Delegative Democracy.” Journal of Democracy 5 (1) (January): 5569.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
PAGE, BENJAMIN and SHAPIRO, ROBERT 1992 The Rational Public. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
POPKIN, SAMUEL 1991 The Reasoning Voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
RUBIO, LUIS 1998Coping with Political Change.” In Mexico under Zedillo, edited by Susan Kaufman Purcell and Rubio, Luis. Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
SCHICKLER, ERIC and GREEN, DONALD 1997The Stability of Party Identification in Western Democracies.” Comparative Political Studies 30: 450–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
SNIDERMAN, PAUL M., HAGEN, MICHAEL G., TETLOCK, PHILIP E., and BRADY, HENRY E. 1986Reasoning Chains: Causal Models of Policy Reasoning in Mass Publics.” British Journal of Political Science 16: 405–30.Google Scholar
SNIDERMAN, PAUL M., TETLOCK, PHILIP E., and BRODY, RICHARD 1991 Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
SNIDERMAN, PAUL M., TETLOCK, PHILIP E., and BRODY, RICHARD 1995 Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
STIMSON, JAMES A. 1991 Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings. Boulder, Colo.: Westview.Google Scholar
WILEY, DAVID E., and WILEY, JAMES A. 1970The Estimation of Measurement Error in Panel Data.” American Sociological Review 35 (1): 112–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
ZECHMEISTER, ELIZABETH 2002What's Left and Who's Right in Mexican Politics?” Paper presented at the conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Ill., April.Google Scholar