Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-g8jcs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T16:00:30.806Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Keeping Up with the Souzas: Social Influence and Electoral Change in a Weak Party System, Brazil 2002–2006

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2018

Barry Ames ,
Miguel García-Sánchez  and
Amy Erica Smith
Barry Ames
Affiliation:
University of Pittsburgh
Miguel García-Sánchez
Affiliation:
Universidad de los Andes
Amy Erica Smith
Affiliation:
Iowa State University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Despite weak partisanship and considerable political change in the wake of the 2002 election, three-quarters of Brazilian voters supported a presidential candidate in 2006 from the same party they had backed in 2002. This article assesses the factors causing both electoral stability and electoral change with a transition model, a model testing whether the effects of respondents' evaluative criteria depend on their initial vote choices. Social context—personal discussion networks, neighborhood influences, and the interactions of social networks and municipal context—is the major force promoting stability and change, while the impact of partisanship is limited to a small share of voters.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Politics and Society , Volume 54 , Issue 2 , Summer 2012 , pp. 51 - 78
Copyright
Copyright © University of Miami 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abers, Rebecca, and Keck, Margaret. 2006. Muddy Waters: the Political Construction of Deliberative Water Basin Governance in Brazil. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 30, 3: 601–22.Google Scholar
Allison, Paul. 2001. Missing Data. Thousand Oaks : Sage.Google Scholar
Almeida, Alberto. 2007. A cabeça do brasileiro. 2nd ed. de Janeiro, Rio: Editora Record.Google Scholar
Altman, David, and Chasquetti, Daniel. 2005. Re-election and Political Career Paths in the Uruguayan Congress, 1985–99. Journal of Legislative Studies 11, 2: 235–53.Google Scholar
Ames, Barry. 2001. The Deadlock of Democracy in Brazil. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ames, Barry, and Smith, Amy Erica. 2010. Knowing Left from Right: Ideological Identification in Brazil, 2002–2006. Journal of Politics in Latin America 2, 3: 3–38.Google Scholar
Ames, Barry, and Rojo-Mendoza, Reynaldo. 2010. Urban Context and Political Behavior: Partisanship and Polarization in Two Brazilian Cities. Paper presented at the 29th International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, Toronto, October 6–10.Google Scholar
Baiocchi, Gianpaolo, ed. 2003. Radicals in Power: Experiments in Urban Democracy in Brazil. London : Zed.Google Scholar
Baker, Andy, Ames, Barry, and Rennó, Lucio. 2006. Social Context and Campaign Volatility in New Democracies: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil's 2002 Elections. American Journal of Political Science 50, 2: 382–99.Google Scholar
Bearak, Barry. 2004. Poor Man's Burden. New York times Magazine, June 27.Google Scholar
Beekun, Rafik, Stedham, Yvonne, and Yamamura, Jeanne. 2003. Business Ethics in Brazil and the U.S.: a Comparative Investigation. Journal of Business Ethics 42, 267–79.Google Scholar
Berelson, Bernard, Lazarsfeld, Paul, and McPhee, William. 1954. Voting: A Study on Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago : University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Bohn, Simone. 2007. Contexto político-eleitoral, minorias religiosas e voto em pleitos presidenciais, 2002–2006. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 366–87.Google Scholar
Bontempo, Robert, Lobel, Sharon, and Triandis, Harry. 1990. Compliance and Value Internalization in Brazil and the U.S. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 21, 2: 200–213.Google Scholar
Braga, Maria do Socorro. 2006. O processo partidário-eleitoral brasileiro: padrões de competição política 1982–2002. São Paulo : Associação Editorial Humanitas Fapesp.Google Scholar
Braga, Maria do Socorro. 2007. O processo político-partidário brasileiro e as eleições de 2006. Política and Sociedade 6, 10: 53–89.Google Scholar
Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos. 2006. O paradoxo da esquerda no Brasil. Novos Estudos 74, 25–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burbank, Matthew. 1997. Explaining Contextual Effects on Vote Choice. Political Behavior 19, 2: 113–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip, Miller, Warren, and Stokes, Donald. 1964. The American Voter: An Abridgment. New York : John Wiley.Google Scholar
Candler, Gaylord. 2000. The Professions and Public Policy: Expanding the Third Sector. International Political Science Review 21, 1: 43–58.Google Scholar
Carreirão, Yan de Souza 2002. A decisão do voto nas eleições presidenciais brasileiros. Florianópolis : Editora da Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina.Google Scholar
Carreirão, Yan de Souza 2007a. Identificação ideológica, partidos e voto na eleição presidencial de 2006. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 307–39.Google Scholar
Carreirão, Yan de Souza 2007b. Relevant Factors for the Voting Decision in the 2002 Presidential Election. Brazilian Political Science Review 1, 1: 70–101.Google Scholar
Carreirão, Yan de Souza, and Kinzo, Maria d'Alva Gil. 2004. Partidos políticos, preferência partidária e decisão eleitoral no Brasil (1989–2002). Dados: Revista de Ciências Sociais 47, 1: 131–68.Google Scholar
Coimbra, Marcos. 2007. Quatro razões para a vitória de Lula. Rio de Janeiro : Instituto Nacional de Altos Estudos.Google Scholar
Converse, Phillip, and Dupeux, Georges. 1962. Politicization of the Electorate in France and the United States. Public Opinion Quarterly 26, 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diggle, Peter, Liang, Kung-Yee, and Zeger, Scott. 2002. Analysis of Longitudinal Data. Oxford : Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Fay, Robert. 1996. Alternative Paradigms for the Analysis of Imputed Survey Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 91, 434: 490–98.Google Scholar
Figueiredo, Argelina, and Limongi, Fernando. 2000. Presidential Power, Legislative Organization and Party in Brazil. Comparative Politics 32, 2: 151–70.Google Scholar
Frank, Zephyr Lake. 2001. Elite Families and Oligarchic Politics on the Brazilian Frontier: Mato Grosso, 1889–1937. Latin American Research Review 36, 1: 49–74.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and Hill, Jennifer. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Giles, Michael, and Dantico, Marilyn. 1982. Political Participation and Neighborhood Social Context Revisited. American Journal of Political Science 26, 1: 144–50.Google Scholar
Hamill, Ruth, Lodge, Milton, and Blake, Frederick. 1985. The Breadth, Depth, and Utility of Class, Partisan, and Ideological Schemata. American Journal of Political Science 29: 850–70.Google Scholar
Hillygus, D. Sunshine, and Jackman, Simon. 2003. Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects, Partisan Activation, and the Clinton Legacy. American Journal of Political Science 47, 4: 583–96.Google Scholar
Hochstetler, Kathryn. 2008. Organized Civil Society in Lula's Brazil. In Democratic Brazil Revisited, ed. Kingstone, Peter and Power, Timothy. Pittsburgh : University of Pittsburgh Press. 33–53.Google Scholar
Hofstede, Geert. 1984. Culture's Consequences: International Differences in Work-Related Values. Newbury Park : Sage.Google Scholar
Hofstede, Geert, de Hilal, Adriana Garibaldi, Malvezzi, Sigmar, Tanure, Betania, and Vinken, Henk. 2010. Comparing Regional Cultures within a Country: Lessons from Brazil. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 41, 3: 336–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holmberg, Soren. 1994. Party Identification Compared Across the Atlantic. In Elections at Home and Abroad, ed. Jennings, M. Kent and Mann, Thomas E.. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press. 93–122.Google Scholar
Holzhacker, Denilde, and Balbachevsky, Elizaberth. 2007. Classe ideologia e política: uma interpretação dos resultados das eleições de 2002 e 2006. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 283–306.Google Scholar
Huckfeldt, Robert. 1986. Politics in Context: Assimilation and Conflict in Urban Neighborhoods. New York : Agathon Press.Google Scholar
Huckfeldt, Robert, and Sprague, John. 1987. Networks in Context: the Social Flow of Political Information. American Political Science Review 81, 4: 1197–1216.Google Scholar
Huckfeldt, Robert, and Sprague, John. 1993. Citizens, Contexts, and Politics. In Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, ed. Finifter, Ada. Washington, DC : American Political Science Association. 281–303.Google Scholar
Huckfeldt, Robert, and Sprague, John. 1995. Citizens, Politics, and Social Communication: Information and Influence in an Election Campaign. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Huckfeldt, Robert, Johnson, Paul, and Sprague, John. 2004. Political Disagreement: The Survival of Diverse Opinions Within Communication Networks. New York : Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hunter, Wendy. 2003. Brazil's New Direction. Journal of Democracy 14, 2: 151–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hunter, Wendy. 2007. The Normalization of an Anomaly: the Workers' Party in Brazil. World Politics 59, 3: 440–75.Google Scholar
Hunter, Wendy. 2008. The Pt in Power: Shifting Policies and Patterns of Political Support. Paper presented at the Conference “Latin America's ‘Left Turn’: Causes and Implications,” Harvard University, April 4–5.Google Scholar
Hunter, Wendy, and Power, Timothy. 2007. Rewarding Lula: Executive Power, Social Policy, and the Brazilian Elections of 2006. Latin American Politics and Society 49, 1 (Spring): 1–30.Google Scholar
Kam, Cindy, and Franzese, Robert Jr. 2007. Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Keck, Margaret. 1992. The Workers' Party and Democratization in Brazil. New Haven : Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Keck, Margaret, and Hochstetler, Kathryn. 2007. Greening Brazil: Environmental Activism in State and Society. Durham : Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Kenny, Christopher. 1992. Political Participation and Effects from the Social Environment. American Journal of Political Science 36, 1: 259–67.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Honaker, James, Joseph, Anne, and Scheve, Kenneth. 2001. Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: an Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation. American Political Science Review 95, 1: 49–69.Google Scholar
Kinzo, Maria d'Alva Gil. 2003. Parties and Elections: Brazil's Democratic Experience Since 1985. In Brazil Since 1985: Economy, Polity and Society, ed. Kinzo, and Dunkerley, James. London : Institute of Latin American Studies. 42–61.Google Scholar
Kinzo, Maria d'Alva Gil. 2005. Os partidos no eleitorado: percepções públicas e laços partidários no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais 20, 57: 65–81.Google Scholar
Kotler-Berkowitz, Laurence. 2005. Friends and Politics: Linking Diverse Friendship Networks to Political Participation. In Zuckerman 2005b. 152–70.Google Scholar
Lazarsfeld, Paul, Berelson, Bernard, and Gaudet, Hazel. 1948. The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. 2nd ed. New York : Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Lemos, Maria Carmen, and de Oliveira, João Lúcio Farias. 2004. Can Water Reform Survive Politics? Institutional Change and River Basin Management in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. World Development 32, 12: 2121–37.Google Scholar
Levine, Jeffrey. 2005. Choosing Alone? the Social Network Basis of Modern Political Choice. In Zuckerman 2005b. 132–51.Google Scholar
Lyne, Mona. 2008. Proffering Pork: How Party Leaders Build Party Reputations in Brazil. American Journal of Political Science 52, 2: 290–303.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael, and Brown, Courtney. 1987. Political Context and Attitude Change. American Political Science Review 81, 2: 471–90.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott. 1999. Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization. Stanford : Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Melo, Carlos Ranulfo. 2006. Sistema partidário, presidencialismo e reforma política no Brasil. In Reforma política: lições da história recente, ed. Dillon Soares, Glaucio Ary and Rennó, Lucio. Rio de Janeiro : Editora Fundação Getúlio Vargas. 157–75.Google Scholar
Meneguello, Rachel. 1989. PT: a formação de um partido, 1979–1982. São Paulo : Paz e Terra.Google Scholar
Meng, Xiao-Li. 1994. Multiple-Imputation Inferences with Uncongenial Sources of Input. Statistical Science 9, 4: 538–58.Google Scholar
Mondak, Jeffrey, Mutz, Diana, and Huckfeldt, Robert. 1996. Persuasion in Context: The Multilevel Structure of Economic Evaluations. In Political Persuasion and Attitude Change, ed. Mutz, Paul Sniderman, and Brody, Richard. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press. 249–66.Google Scholar
Morgan, T. M., Aneshensel, Carol S., and Clark, V. A.. 1983. Parameter Estimation for Mover-Stayer Models: Analyzing Depression over Time. Sociological Methods and Research 11, 3: 345–66.Google Scholar
Mutz, Diana. 1997. Mechanisms of Momentum: Does Thinking Make It So? Journal of Politics 59, 1: 104–25.Google Scholar
Mutz, Diana. 2006. Hearing the Other Side: Deliberative Versus Participatory Democracy. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Nicolau, Jairo. 2006. Voto personalizado e reforma eleitoral no Brasil. In Reforma política: lições da história recente, ed. Dillon Soares, Glaucio Ary and Rennó, Lucio. Rio de Janeiro : Editora Fundação Getúlio Vargas. 23–33.Google Scholar
Nicolau, Jairo. 2007. An Analysis of the 2002 Presidential Elections Using Logistic Regression. Brazilian Political Science Review 1, 1: 125–35.Google Scholar
Nicolau, Jairo, and Peixoto, Vitor. 2007. Uma disputa em tres tempos: uma análise das bases municipais da eleições presidenciais de 2006. Paper presented at the 31st Encontro Anual da ANPOCS. Caxambu, October 22–26.Google Scholar
Oliveira, Francisco de. 2006. Lula in the Labyrinth. New Left Review 42: 5–22.Google Scholar
Paiva, Denise, do Socorro Braga, Maria, and Pires Pimentel, Jairo Tadeu Jr. 2007. Eleitorado e partidos políticos no Brasil. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 388–408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearson, Virginia, and Stephan, Walter. 1998. Preferences for Styles of Negotiation: a Comparison of Brazil and the U.S. International Journal of Inter-cultural Relations 22, 1: 67–83.Google Scholar
Rahn, Wendy. 1993. The Role of Partisan Stereotypes in Information Processing about Political Candidates. American Journal of Political Science 37, 2: 471–96.Google Scholar
Reis, Fabio Wanderley, ed. 1978. Os partidos e o regime: a lógica do processo eleitoral brasileiro. São Paulo : Símbolo.Google Scholar
Rennó, Lucio. 2006. Notes on the Brazilian 2006 Presidential Elections: The Winding Road to Democratic Consolidation. Colombia Internacional 64: 154–65.Google Scholar
Rennó, Lucio. 2007. Escândalos e voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 2006. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 160–82.Google Scholar
Robins, James, and Wang, Naisyin. 2000. Inference for Imputation Estimators. Biometrika 87, 1: 113–24.Google Scholar
Rodrigues, Maria Guadalupe Moog. 2003. Global Environmentalism and Local Politics: Transnational Advocacy Networks in Brazil, Ecuador, and India. Albany : SUNY Press.Google Scholar
Royston, Patrick. 2004. Multiple Imputation of Missing Values. Stata Journal 4, 227–41.Google Scholar
Rubin, Donald. 1987. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. New York : John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Samuels, David. 2004. From Socialism to Social Democracy: Party Organization and the Transformation of the Workers' Party in Brazil. Comparative Political Studies 37, 9: 999–1024.Google Scholar
Samuels, David. 2006. Sources of Mass Partisanship in Brazil. Latin American Politics and Society 48, 2 (Summer): 1–27.Google Scholar
Singer, Andre. 1999. Esquerda e direita no eleitorado brasileiro: a identificação ideológica nas disputas presidenciais de 1989 e 1994. São Paulo : Editora da Universidade de São Paulo.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, Wittenberg, Jason, and King, Gary. 2001. Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results. Version 2.0. Harvard University, June 1. http://gking.harvard.edu.Google Scholar
Veiga, Luciana Fernandes. 2007. Os partidos brasileiros na perspectiva dos eleitores: mudanças e continuidades na identificação partidária e na avaliação das principais legendas após 2002. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 340–65.Google Scholar
Weatherford, M. Stephen. 1982. Interpersonal Networks and Political Behavior. American Journal of Political Science 26, 1: 117–43.Google Scholar
Zucco, Cesar. 2008. The President's “New” Constituency: Lula and the Pragmatic Vote in Brazil's 2006 Presidential Elections. Journal of Latin American Studies 40, 1: 29–49.Google Scholar
Zucco, Cesar. 2012. Estabilidad sin raices: la institucionalización del sistema de partidos brasileño. Forthcoming in Los problemas de la institucionalizacion de los sistemas de partidos en America Latina, ed. Torcal, Mariano. Barcelona : CIDOB.Google Scholar
Zuckerman, Alan. 2005a. Returning to the Social Logic of Political Behavior. In Zuckerman 2005b. 3–20.Google Scholar
Zuckerman, Alan, ed. 2005b. The Social Logic of Politics: Personal Networks as Contexts for Political Behavior. Philadelphia : Temple University Press.Google Scholar