Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-20T13:16:41.803Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Electoral Accountability in the Midst of Criminal Violence: Evidence from Mexico

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2018

Sandra Ley*
Affiliation:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas. [email protected]
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Rising levels of crime and insecurity affect the quality of life. A fundamental question for the prospects of democracy is whether voters, in hopes of reaching better solutions to conditions of prevailing insecurity, can hold their elected officials accountable for such situations. This article argues that electoral accountability amid criminal violence requires voters to be able to assign responsibility for crime, and that partisan alignment across levels of government facilitates this task. Recent Mexican elections are examined to test this argument. Relying on both aggregate electoral data and individual survey evidence, this study shows that voters hold politicians accountable for crime in the narrow circumstances of organized crime–related violence and political alignment. This evidence not only provides additional caveats to issue voting models, but also opens new avenues of research on electoral accountability.

Type
Research
Copyright
Copyright © University of Miami 2017

References

Altheide, David L. 2002. Creating Fear: News and the Construction of Crisis. New York: Aldine de Gruyter.Google Scholar
Álvarez, Juan. 2010. Llamado a Calderón. Milenio Tamaulipas (Tampico), Nacional, June 30, 9.Google Scholar
Andreas, Peter, and Wallman, Joel. 2009. Illicit Markets and Violence: What Is the Relationship? Crime, Law and Social Change 52, 3: 225–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arceneaux, Kevin. 2003. The Conditional Impact of Blame Attribution on the Relationship between Economic Adversity and Turnout. Political Research Quarterly 56, 1: 6775.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enrique Desmond, Arias. 2006. The Dynamics of Criminal Governance: Networks of Social Order in Rio de Janeiro. Journal of Latin American Studies 38, 2: 293325.Google Scholar
Azuara, Patricia. 2010. Generación de empleos. Milenio Tamaulipas (Tampico), Nacional, June 22, 6.Google Scholar
Banco de Información para la Investigación Aplicada en Ciencias Sociales (BIIACS). 2012. Mexican Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). Mexico City: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas. http://biiacs-dspace.cide.edu.Google Scholar
Bateson, Regina. 2012. Crime Victimization and Political Participation. American Political Science Review 106, 3: 570–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beckett, Katherine. 1997. Making Crime Pay: Law and Order in Contemporary American Politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
José Alfredo, Beltrán. 2010. Vizcarra “olvidó” seguridad, dice Ortiz. Noroeste (Culiacán), June 4.Google Scholar
Berinsky, Adam. 2005. The Perverse Consequence of Electoral Reform in the United States. American Politics Research 33, 4: 471–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bravo, Carlos, and Maldonado, Gerardo. 2012. Balas y votos: ¿Qué efecto tiene la violencia sobre las elecciones? In Las bases sociales del crimen organizado y la violencia en México, ed. Antonio Aguilar, José. Mexico City: Secretaría de Seguridad Pública. 309–36.Google Scholar
Bravo Regidor, Regidor. 2011. Una ayudadita de memoria para Felipe Calderón. Nexos, Blog de la redacción, January 28. http://redaccion.nexos.com.mx/?p=2571.Google Scholar
Canes-Wrone Brandice, Brandice, Minozzi, William, and Bonney Reveley, Jessica. 2011. Issue Accountability and the Mass Public. Legislative Studies Quarterly 36, 1: 535.Google Scholar
Carreras, Miguel, and Trelles, Alejandro. 2012. Bullets and Votes: Violence and Electoral Participation in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America 4, 2: 89123.Google Scholar
Caudillo, Monica L., and Torche, Florencia. 2014. Exposure to Local Homicides and Early Educational Achievement in Mexico. Sociology of Education 87, 2: 89105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chin Ko-lin, Ko-lin, and Godson, Roy. 2006. Organized Crime and the Political-Criminal Nexus in China. Trends in Organized Crime 9, 3: 544.Google Scholar
Chung, Yeojin, Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia, Dorie, Vincent, Gelman, Andrew, and Liu, Jingchen. 2013. A Nondegenerate Penalized Likelihood Estimator for Variance Parameters in Multilevel Models. Psychometrika 284: 125.Google Scholar
Cummins, Jeff. 2009. Issue Voting and Crime in Gubernatorial Elections. Social Science Quarterly 90, 3: 632–51.Google Scholar
Durán-Martínez, Angélica. 2015. To Kill and Tell? State Power, Criminal Competition, and Drug Violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, 8: 13771402.Google Scholar
Felbab-Brown, Vanda. 2010. Shooting Up: Counterinsurgency and the War on Drugs. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
García, Adán. 2011. Acusan uso político de asesinato de Edil. Reforma (Mexico City), Nacional, November 3.Google Scholar
García, Lev. 2011. Promete “Cocoa” erradicar extorsión. Reforma, Estados, September 4.Google Scholar
Gélineau François, François, and Remmer, Karen. 2006. Political Decentralization and Electoral Accountability: the Argentine Experience, 1983–2001. British Journal of Political Science 36, 1: 133–57.Google Scholar
Hagan, Frank E. 1983. Organized Crime Continuum: a Further Specification of a New Conceptual Model. Criminal Justice Review 8: 5257.Google Scholar
Hernández Erika, Erika, and Salazar, Claudia. 2010. Enfrenta seguridad a Pri y an. Reforma (Mexico City), Nacional, September 6, 6.Google Scholar
Hobolt, Sara, Tilley, James, and Banducci, Susan. 2013. Clarity of Responsibility: How Government Cohesion Conditions Performance Voting. European Journal of Political Research 52, 2: 164–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holmes, Jennifer S., and Amin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, Sheila. 2012. Security and Economic Voting: Support for Incumbent Parties in Colombian Presidential Elections. Democratization 20, 6: 1117–43.Google Scholar
Javeline, Debra. 2003. Protest and the Politics of Blame: The Russian Response to Unpaid Wages. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Krause, Krystin. 2014. Supporting the Iron Fist: Crime News, Public Opinion, and Authoritarian Crime Control in Guatemala. Latin American Politics and Society 56, 1 (Spring): 98119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langston, Joy and Ley, Sandra. 2016. The Elephant in the Room: When Do Congressional Candidates Mention Security Issues? Working Paper. Political Studies Division, CIDE.Google Scholar
Ley, Sandra. 2014. Citizens in Fear: Political Participation and Voting Behavior in the midst of Violence. Ph.D. diss., Duke University.Google Scholar
Ley, Sandra, and Dorff, Cassy. 2012. Survey of responsibility attribution for the security situation in Mexico. Conducted July 5–8.Google Scholar
Leyden, Kevin M., and Borrelli, Stephen A.. 1995. The Effect of State Economic Conditions on Gubernatorial Elections: Does Unified Government Make a Difference? Political Research Quarterly 48, 2: 275–90.Google Scholar
Luján, Francisco. 2011. Ataque a Leyzaola rompe relación municipio-federación. Norte de Ciudad Juárez, July 27.Google Scholar
Marion, Nancy E., and Farmer, Rick. 2003. Crime Control in the 2000 Presidential Election. American Journal of Criminal Justice 27, 2: 129–44.Google Scholar
Marshall, John. 2015. Political Information Cycles: When Do Voters Sanction Incumbent Parties for High Homicide Rates? Working paper. Department of Political Science, Harvard University.Google Scholar
Minjares, Gabriela. 2010. Se suma Creel a guerra de acusaciones contra Duarte. El Diario de Chihuahua (Chihuahua City), June 26, 11.Google Scholar
Molzahn, Cory, Rodríguez Ferreira, Octavio, and Shirk, David A.. 2013. Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis Through 2012. San Diego: Trans Border Institute, Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego.Google Scholar
Nacif, Benito. 2002. Understanding Party Discipline in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies: The Centralized Party Model. In Legislative Politics in Latin America, ed. Morgenstern, Scott and Nacif, . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 254–86.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 2001. Divided Government and Economic Voting. Journal of Politics 63, 2: 414–35.Google Scholar
López, Norzagaray, David, Miguel. 2010. El narcotráfico en México desde el discurso oficial. Ph.D. thesis, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Mexico City.Google Scholar
Pérez, Orlando J. 2015. The Impact of Crime on Voter Choice in Latin America. In The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts, ed. Carlin, Ryan E., Singer, Matthew M., and Zechmeister, Elizabeth J.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. 324–45.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham, and Whitten, Guy D.. 1993. A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context. American Journal of Political Science 37, 2: 391414.Google Scholar
Prillaman, William C. 2003. Crime, Democracy, and Development in Latin America. Policy Papers on the Americas 14, 6: 130. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies.Google Scholar
Putnam, Kate. 2013. Campaigns, Issue Voting, and Crime in Developing Democracies: Evidence from Mexico's Recent Elections. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 11–14.Google Scholar
Reforma (Mexico City). 2009. Debaten de crimen y exigen acciones. Nacional, May 28, 4.Google Scholar
Robles, Gustavo, Magaloni, Beatriz, and Calderón, Gabriela. 2013. The Economic Costs of Drug-Trafficking Violence in Mexico. Working paper. Stanford: Program on Poverty and Governance, Stanford University.Google Scholar
Romer, Daniel, Hall Jamieson, Kathleen, and Aday, Sean. 2003. Television News and the Cultivation of Fear of Crime. Journal of Communication 53, 1: 88104.Google Scholar
Romero, Oscar. 2010. El crimen, respuesta de la delincuencia: Peña Nieto. Milenio Tamaulipas (Tampico), Nacional, June 29, 9.Google Scholar
Romero, Vidal. 2013. Impacto de los temas de seguridad pública en la aprobación presidencial. Política y Gobierno, Thematic Volume: 117–38.Google Scholar
Romero, Vidal, and Magaloni, Beatriz. 2013. How Do Crime and Violence Impact Presidential Approval? Examining the Dynamics of the Mexican Case. Paper prepared for presentation at the 2013 American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, August 29–September 1.Google Scholar
Rudolph, Thomas J. 2003. Who's Responsible for the Economy? the Formation and Consequences of Responsibility Attributions. American Journal of Political Science 47, 4: 698713.Google Scholar
Sabet, Daniel. 2012. Police Reform in Mexico: Informal Politics and the Challenge of Institutional Change. Stanford: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sampson, Robert. 1985. Neighborhood and Crime: the Structural Determinants of Personal Victimization. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 22, 1: 740.Google Scholar
Sberna, Salvatore. 2011. Electoral Competition and Criminal Violence in Italy (1983–2003). Paper presented at the European Consortium for Political Research Joint Session Conference Workshop on Political Institutions and Conflict, St. Gallen, Switzerland, April 12–17.Google Scholar
Simon, Jonathan. 2006. Governing Through Crime: How the War on Crime Transformed American Democracy and Created a Culture of Fear. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Singer, Matthew M. 2011. Who Says “It's the Economy”? Cross-National and Cross-Individual Variation in the Salience of Economic Performance. Comparative Political Studies 44, 3: 284312.Google Scholar
Smith, Jason M. 2010. Does Crime Pay? Issue Ownership, Political Opportunity, and the Populist Right in Western Europe. Comparative Political Studies 43, 1: 1471–98.Google Scholar
Snyder, Richard, and Durán-Martínez, Angélica. 2009. Does Illegality Breed Violence? Drug Trafficking and State-Sponsored Protection Rackets. Crime, Law, and Social Change 52, 3: 253–73.Google Scholar
Trejo, Guillermo, and Ley, Sandra. 2015. Municipios bajo fuego (1995–2014). Nexos, February 1. http://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=24024.Google Scholar
Trejo, Guillermo, and Ley, Sandra. 2016. Federalism, Drugs, and Violence: Why Intergovernmental Partisan Conflict Stimulated Inter-Cartel Violence in Mexico. Política y Gobierno 23, 1: 952.Google Scholar
Randy Sunwin, Uang. 2013. Campaigning on Public Security in Latin America: Obstacles to Success. Latin American Politics and Society 55, 2 (Summer)): 2651.Google Scholar
Varese, Federico, ed. 2010. Introduction: What Is Organized Crime? In Organized Crime: Critical Concepts in Criminology, ed. Varese, . London: Routledge. 133.Google Scholar
Villarreal Andrés, Andrés, and Silva, Braulio F.. 2006. Social Cohesion, Criminal Victimization, and Perceived Risk of Crime in Brazilian Neighborhoods. Social Forces 84, 3: 1725–53.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Ley supplementary material

Appendix

Download Ley supplementary material(File)
File 18.9 KB