Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-mlc7c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-20T02:35:38.287Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Conditional Accountability for the Economy, Insecurity, and Corruption Across Latin American Party Systems

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 September 2020

Matthew M. Singer*
Affiliation:
Matthew M. Singer is an associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. [email protected].

Abstract

The association between how citizens perceive economic performance, insecurity, or corruption and how they evaluate the president varies systematically across Latin American countries and within them over time. In particular, while presidential popularity reflects these outcomes in the average Latin American country, survey data from 2006–17 confirm that the connection between government performance and presidential approval is generally stronger when unfragmented party systems or single-party majority governments make assessments of political responsibility easier. While these results suggest that the region’s citizens do not blindly blame the president for outcomes where political responsibility should be shared, they also remind us that there are many countries in the region where fragmented party systems weaken the conditions for effective political accountability.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the University of Miami

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Conflict of interest: I, Matthew M. Singer, declare none.

References

Achen, Chris, and Bartels, Larry. 2016. Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Albrecht, Fredericke. 2017. Government Accountability and Natural Disasters: The Impact of Natural Hazard Events on Political Trust and Satisfaction with Governments in Europe. Risk Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy 8, 4: 381410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alcañiz, Isabela, and Hellwig, Timothy. 2011. Who’s to Blame? The Distribution of Responsibility in Developing Democracies. British Journal of Political Science 41, 2: 389411.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alemán, Eduardo, and Navia, Patricio. 2009. Institutions and the Legislative Success of “Strong” Presidents: An Analysis of Government Bills in Chile. Journal of Legislative Studies 15, 4: 401–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Cameron. 2006. Economic Voting and Multilevel Governance: A Comparative Individual-Level Analysis. American Journal of Political Science 50, 2: 449–63.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00194.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Christopher. 2000. Economic Voting and Political Context: A Comparative Perspective. Electoral Studies 19: 151–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bengtsson, Asa. 2004. Economic Voting: The Effect of Political Context, Volatility and Turnout on Voters’ Assignment of Responsibility. European Journal of Political Research 43, 5: 449–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brace, Paul, and Hinckley, Barbara. 1992. Follow the Leader: Opinion Polls and the Modern President. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Calvo, Ernesto. 2007. The Responsive Legislature: Public Opinion and Law Making in a Highly Disciplined Legislature. British Journal of Political Science 37, 2: 263–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Camerlo, Marcelo, and Martínez-Gallardo, Cecilia. 2017. Government Formation and Minister Turnover in Presidential Cabinets: Comparative Analysis in the Americas. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campello, Daniela, and Zucco, Cesar. 2016. Presidential Success and the World Economy. Journal of Politics 78, 2: 589602.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlin, Ryan, and Hellwig, Timothy. 2019. Policy Regimes and Economic Accountability in Latin America. Comparative Political Studies 52, 13–14: 2032–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlin, Ryan, and Singh, Shane. 2015. Executive Power and Economic Accountability. Journal of Politics 77, 4: 1031–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlin, Ryan, Singer, Matthew, and Zechmeister, Elizabeth. 2015. The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.10.3998/mpub.8402589CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carreras, Miguel, and Visconti, Giancarlo. n.d. Who Pays for Crime? Criminal Violence and Accountability in Latin America. Unpublished manuscript.Google Scholar
Chappell, Henry, and Gonçalves Veiga, Linda. 2000. Economics and Elections in Western Europe: 1960–1997. Electoral Studies 19, 2–3: 183–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corrales, Javier. 2018. Fixing Democracy: How Power Asymmetries Help Explain Presidential Powers in New Constitutions: Evidence from Latin America. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Costa Lobo, Marina, and Lewis-Beck, Michael. 2012. The Integration Hypothesis: How the European Union Shapes Economic Voting. Electoral Studies 31, 3: 522–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary, and Morgenstern, Scott. 2001. Latin America’s Reactive Assemblies and Proactive Presidents. Comparative Politics 33, 2: 171–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dassonneville, Ruth, and Lewis-Beck, Michael. 2017. Rules, Institutions and the Economic Vote: Clarifying Clarity of Responsibility. West European Politics 40, 3: 534–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond, and Stevenson, Randolph. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Echegaray, Fabián. 2005. Economic Crises and Electoral Responses in Latin America. New York: University Press of America.Google Scholar
Ecker, Alejandro, Glinitzer, Konstantin, and Meyer, Thomas. 2016. Corruption Performance Voting and the Electoral Context. European Political Science Review 8, 3: 333–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elgie, Robert. 2017. Political Leadership: A Pragmatic Institutionalist Approach. London: Springer.Google Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Andersen, Robert. 2006. The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions. Journal of Politics 68, 1: 194207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Gasper, John, and Reeves, Andrew. 2011. Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters. American Journal of Political Science 55, 2: 340–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gélineau, François, and Remmer, Karen. 2006. Political Decentralization and Electoral Accountability: The Argentine Experience, 1983–2001. British Journal of Political Science 36 (January): 133–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gélineau, François, and Singer, Matthew. 2015. The Economy and Incumbent Support in Latin America. In Carlin et al. 2015. 281–99.Google Scholar
Gomez, Brad T., and Wilson, J. Matthew. 2006. Cognitive Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: A Comparative Analysis of Four Democratic Electorates. American Journal of Political Science 50, 1: 127–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hayes, Rosa, Imai, Masami, and Shelton, Cameron. 2015. Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks. Economic Inquiry 53, 1: 258–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy. 2014. Retaining the Room to Maneuver: Globalization and Mass Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy, and Samuels, David. 2008. Electoral Accountability and the Variety of Democratic Regimes. British Journal of Political Science 38, 1: 6590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hobolt, Sara, and Tilley, James. 2014. Blaming Europe: Responsibility Without Accountability in the European Union. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hobolt, Sara, Tilley, James, and Banducci, Susan. 2013. Clarity of Responsibility: How Government Cohesion Conditions Performance Voting. European Journal of Political Research 52, 2: 164–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, Gregory, Hill, Seth, and Lenz, Gabriel. 2012. Sources of Bias in Retrospective Decision Making: Experimental Evidence on Voters’ Limitations in Controlling Incumbents. American Political Science Review 106, 4: 720–41.10.1017/S0003055412000391CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, Gregg, and Schwindt-Bayer, Leslie. 2009. Economic Accountability in Central America. Journal of Politics in Latin America 1: 3356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kramer, Gerald. 1983. The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate-versus Individual-level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting. American Political Science Review 77, 1: 92111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ley, Sandra. 2017. Electoral Accountability in the Midst of Criminal Violence: Evidence from Mexico. Latin American Politics and Society 59, 1: 327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maeda, Ko. 2010. Divided We Fall: Opposition Fragmentation and the Electoral Fortunes of Governing Parties. British Journal of Political Science 40, 2: 419–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manzetti, Luigi, and Rosas, Guillermo. 2015. Corruption and the Latin American Voter. In Carlin et al. 2015. 300–323.Google Scholar
Marsh, Michael, and Tilley, James. 2010. The Attribution of Credit and Blame to Governments and Its Impact on Vote Choice. British Journal of Political Science 40, 1: 11534.10.1017/S0007123409990275CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martínez-Gallardo, Cecilia. 2014. Designing Cabinets: Presidential Politics and Cabinet Instability in Latin America. Journal of Politics in Latin America 6, 2: 338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murillo, M. Victoria, and Visconti, Giancarlo. 2017. Economic Performance and Incumbents’ Support in Latin America. Electoral Studies 45 (February): 180–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, and Lewis-Beck, Michael. 2001. National Economic Voting in US Presidential Elections. Journal of Politics 63, 1: 159–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Niemi, Richard, and Yoshinaka, Antoine. 2002. A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context Across Time and Nations. Electoral Studies 21, 3: 403–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Bélanger, Eric, Lewis-Beck, Michael, Turgeon, Matthieu, and Gélineau, François. 2017. Latin American Elections: Choice and Change. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 2001. Divided Government and Economic Voting. Journal of Politics 63, 2: 414–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O’Donnell, Guillermo. 1994. Delegative Democracy. Journal of Democracy 5, 1: 5569.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pérez, Orlando. 2015. The Impact of Crime on Voter Choice in Latin America. In Carlin et al. 2015. 324–43.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham, and Whitten, Guy. 1993. A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context. American Journal of Political Science 37, 4: 391414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Remmer, Karen. 2014. Exogenous Shocks and Democratic Accountability: Evidence from the Caribbean. Comparative Political Science 47, 8: 1158–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose-Ackerman, Susan, Desierto, Diane, and Volosin, Natalia. 2011. Hyper-Presidentialism: Separation of Powers Without Checks and Balances in Argentina and Philippines. Berkeley Journal of International Law 29, 1: 246333.Google Scholar
Royed, Terry, Leyden, Kevin, and Borrelli, Stephen. 2000. Is “Clarity of Responsibility” Important for Economic Voting? Revisiting Powell and Whitten’s Hypothesis. British Journal of Political Science 30, 4: 669–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rudolph, Thomas. 2003. Who’s Responsible for the Economy? The Formation and Consequences of Responsibility Attributions. American Journal of Political Science 47, 4: 698713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Samuels, David. 2004. Presidentialism and Accountability for the Economy in Comparative Perspective. American Political Science Review 98: 425–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwindt-Bayer, Leslie, and Tavits, Margit. 2016. Clarity of Responsibility, Accountability, and Corruption. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Silva, Thiago, and Whitten, Guy. 2017. Clarity of Responsibility and Vote Choice. In The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, ed. Arzheimer, Kai, Evans, Jocelyn, and Lewis-Beck, Michael. London: Sage. 8091.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, Matthew. 2011. Who Says “It’s the Economy?” Cross-National and Cross-Individual Variation in the Salience of Economic Performance. Comparative Political Studies 44: 284312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, Matthew. 2018. Delegating Away Democracy: How Good Representation and Policy Successes Can Undermine Democratic Legitimacy. Comparative Political Studies 51, 13: 1754–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, Matthew, and Carlin, Ryan. 2013. Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting. Journal of Politics 75: 730–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singh, Shane. 2010. Contextual Influences on the Decision Calculus: A Cross-National Examination of Proximity Voting. Electoral Studies 29, 3: 425–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stegmaier, Mary, Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Park, Beomseob. 2017. The VP-Function: A Review. In The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, ed. Arzheimer, Kai, Evans, Jocelyn, and Lewis-Beck. London: Sage. 584605.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tavits, Margit. 2007. Clarity of Responsibility and Corruption. American Journal of Political Science 51, 1: 218–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Valdini, Melody, and Lewis-Beck, Michael. 2018. Economic Voting in Latin America: Rules and Responsibility. American Journal of Political Science 62, 2: 410–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wiesehomeier, Nina, and Benoit, Kenneth. 2009. Presidents, Parties, and Policy Competition. Journal of Politics 71, 4: 1435–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xezonakis, Georgios, Kosmidis, Spyros, and Dahlberg, Stefan. 2016. Can Electors Combat Corruption? Institutional Arrangements and Citizen Behavior. European Journal of Political Research 55, 1: 160–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zechmeister, Elizabeth. 2015. Left-Right Identifications and the Latin American Voter. In Carlin et al. 2015. 195225.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Singer supplementary material

Web appendix

Download Singer supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 304.9 KB