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Bias in human judgement under uncertainty?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 July 2009

Peter Ayton  and
Eva Pascoe
Peter Ayton
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, City University, Northampton Square, London ECI V OHB, UK.
Eva Pascoe
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, City University, Northampton Square, London ECI V OHB, UK.
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Abstract

The claim is frequently made that human judgement and reasoning are vulnerable to cognitive biases. Such biases are assumed to be inherent in that they are attributed to the nature of the mental processes that produce judgement. In this paper, we review the psychological evidence for this claim in the context of the debate concerning human judgemental competence under uncertainty. We consider recent counter-arguments which suggest that the evidence for cognitive biases may be dependent on observations of performance on inappropriate tasks and by comparisons with inappropriate normative standards. We also consider the practical implications for the design of decision support systems.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Knowledge Engineering Review , Volume 10 , Issue 1 , March 1995 , pp. 21 - 41
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1995

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