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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 23 September 2024
Climatic conditions have changed within the cloud forests of southern Mexico, but the effects of these changes on tree phenology are not well understood. Our study aimed to determine relationships between seasonal patterns of flowering and fruiting and the annual and long-term changes in temperature and rainfall in El Triunfo Biosphere Reserve, Mexico. Flowering and ripe fruiting intensity and fruit number were recorded for 158 trees of 21 zoochorous species during 17 months in 2019–2021. Circular statistics, synchronization calculations, and generalized linear mixed models were used to determine phenological patterns and relationships between phenophases and temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. Flowering was most closely associated (negatively) with rainfall, whereas ripe fruiting was positively associated with solar radiation. We compared recent fruiting seasonality with phenological data collected in 1991–1993. The mean date of community fruiting in 2019–2020 was earlier (April 4) than in 1992 (May 1) and 1993 (May 13). Community fruit number in 2020–2021 decreased in comparison to 2019–2020. Our results suggest that decadal trends of increasing minimum daily temperature and an earlier and wetter wet season influenced the timing of community fruiting phenology, and fruit numbers varied greatly between years, possibly impacting resource availability for frugivores in El Triunfo.