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Predicting the potential suitable habitats of forest spices Piper capense and Aframomum corrorima under climate change in Ethiopia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 March 2022

Tibebu Enkossa ,
Sileshi Nemomissa  and
Debissa Lemessa
Tibebu Enkossa*
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Department of Plant Science, College of Agriculture, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
Sileshi Nemomissa
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Debissa Lemessa
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
*
Author for correspondence: Tibebu Enkossa, Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

Continuing climate change may cause shifts in the adaptive ranges of plant species. But this impact is less understood for many species in the tropics. Here, we examined the distribution of the current and future potential suitable habitats of two native forest spices Piper capense and Aframomum corrorima. We have used MaxEnt software to predict the current and future suitable habitats of these species. Two future climate change scenarios, that is, middle (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP 4.5]) and extreme (RCP 8.5) scenarios for years 2050 and 2070, were used. A total of 60 and 74 occurrence data of P. capense and A. corrorima, respectively, and 22 environmental variables were included. The effects of elevation, solar radiation index (SRI) and topographic position index (TPI) on suitable habitats of these species were tested using linear model in R. Precipitation of the driest quarter, SRI and TPI significantly affect future suitable habitats of P. capense and A. corrorima. Furthermore, there are significant elevational shifts of suitable habitats for both species under future scenarios (P < 0.001). These novel suitable habitats are located in moist Afromontane and Combretum-Terminalia vegetations. Our results suggest that conservation planning for these species should consider climate change factors including assisted migration.

Keywords

climate changeCombretum-Terminalia woodlanddistribution modellingEthiopiamoist Afromontane forestsuitable habitats
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Tropical Ecology , Volume 38 , Issue 4 , July 2022 , pp. 219 - 232
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press

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