New leaf production in seasonal tropical forests may result from changes in water or light availability. In this study, the relationship between leaf flushing, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and rainfall was examined for understorey saplings in a moist tropical forest over one year. During the wet season, weeks with greater PAR were correlated with a greater proportion of saplings flushing new leaves during subsequent weeks in nine out of ten species. Rainfall was negatively correlated with subsequent leafing during the wet season for six of ten species. However, during the dry season, rainfall was positively correlated with leafing during the following weeks for six species, but the relationship was much weaker. PAR in the dry season was negatively correlated with flushing in eight species. These results support the hypothesis that under well-watered conditions, light limits leaf production, and peaks in insolation result in greater leaf production.