1. During the early 1950's the annual numbers of births in England and Wales varied little from an average of 675,000, but since then there has been a marked rise and in 1960 no fewer than 783,000 births were registered. This steep increase was unforeseen in official population projections, including the range of projections published by the Royal Commission on Population, and is likely to have serious repercussions in some quarters. For example, it will in due course result in an increase in the numbers of children of school age to well above the numbers on which plans for school building and teacher training were based.

2. In a paper presented to the Society a year ago (J.S.S.16, 85) the authors showed that the increase in births was attributable in part to an increase in marriage rates and in part to an increase in fertility rates, but the latest data available were those relating to 1957 when there were 723,000 births. No explanation could be offered for the further increase and, in deciding upon the number of births to be assumed in the early years of the projection contained in the paper, it was assumed arbitrarily that the numbers would decline from 750,000 in 1959 to 710,000 in 1963, the latter being the number calculated on the marriage and fertility bases thought suitable for the long-term projection.