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Forecasting Ex-Vessel Prices for Hard Blue Crabs in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Individual and Composite Methods

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2017

Michael A. Hudson  and
Oral Capps Jr.
Michael A. Hudson
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia
Oral Capps Jr.
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics and in the Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia
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Abstract

Given the relative importance of the Chesapeake Bay hard blue crab fishery to the U.S. blue crab fishery, this paper analyzes ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs landed in this region. The purpose is to evaluate alternative methods of forecasting ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs in the Bay; both individual methods (trend extrapolation, econometric, and time-series) and composite methods. Examining the mean squared errors for the individual methods, the time-series model performs the best, with the econometric model slightly better than the trend extrapolation model. None of the composite methods outperforms the time-series model, although in some cases the differences are slight. Nevertheless, the time-series trend extrapolation composite outperforms all other models in identifying turning points. Generally speaking, it would appear that ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs possess strong time dependencies, and consequently, better forecasts occur with time-series models than with econometric models.

Type
Articles
Information
Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council , Volume 13 , Issue 1 , April 1984 , pp. 112 - 118
Copyright
Copyright © Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

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