Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T17:58:19.567Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting Aid to Families With Dependent Children Caseloads and Payments in Delaware

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2017

Richard F. Bieker
Richard F. Bieker*
Affiliation:
Delaware State College, Dover, Delaware
Get access

Extract

The purpose of this paper is to present a model which was developed to forecast Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) caseloads and payments in Delaware. The model consists of a caseload equation, a paynlents equation and three labor market equations. The model, which was fitted statistically using quarterly data for the period 1958-1976, forecasts significantly better than trend type models. In addition, the model, unlike trend type models has the potential for forecasting turning points and can be used to simulate the impact of proposed policy changes.

Type
Articles
Information
Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council , Volume 8 , Issue 1 , April 1979 , pp. 35 - 38
Copyright
Copyright © Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Albin, P. and Stein, B. “The Demand for General Assistance Payments: Comment.” American Economic Review. 57(1967): 575–584.Google Scholar
Barnes, Gary T., et al. “Manpower Forecasting for Small Regions.” Growth and Change. 8 (1977): 15–23.Google Scholar
Brehms, C. and Saving, T. “The Demand for General Assistance Payments.” American Economic Review. 54(1964): 1002–1018.Google Scholar
Brehms, C. and Saving, T. “The Demand for General Assistance Payments: Reply.” American Economic Review. 57(1967): 585–589.Google Scholar
Delaware Department of Health and Social Services. Financial Statement of Fiscal Year. 1950–1977.Google Scholar
Delaware Department of Health and Social Services. Public Assistance Grants—Statistical Report. 1958–1977.Google Scholar
Delaware Department of Labor. Employment. Hours and Earnings. 1958–1977.Google Scholar
Kasper, Hirschel. “Welfare Payments and Work Incentives: Some Determinants of the Rates of General Assistance Payments.” Journal of Human Resources. 3(1968): 86–110.Google Scholar
Latham, William R. Regional Econometric Models: Specification and Simulation of a Quarterly Alternative for Small Regions, Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware (undated).Google Scholar
Spall, Hugh and McGoughran, Edward. “AFDC in Michigan in the Twentieth Century.” Review of Social Economy. 32 (1974): 70–85.Google Scholar
U.S. Bureau of the Census. Census of the Population: 1970, Detailed Characteristics. Final Report PC (1)-D9, Delaware, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1972a.Google Scholar
U.S. Bureau of the Census. Census of the Population: 1970, Occupation by Industry. Final Report PD (2)-7c, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1972b.Google Scholar
U.S. Bureau of the Census. Statistical Abstract of the United States. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1950–1977.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare. Characteristics of State Public Assistance Plans: Provisions, Eligibility Criteria, Assistance and Administration. 1950–1976.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. Philadelphia, Pa. –N.J. 1946–1977.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tomorrow's Manpower Needs. vol. 1–4, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1969.Google Scholar
Winegarden, R. “The Welfare Explosion: Determinants of the Size and Recent Growth of the AFDC Population.” American Journal of Economics and Sociology. 32(1973): 245–256.Google Scholar