Confident prediction of the future course of events is work for astrologers who have either a belief in their own powers which no analysis of past results can undermine, or a gullible clientele which is sufficiently large to make forecasting worthwhile. It is the business of the actuary, as a scientist, to base judgments on an analysis of past events and trends and, as a professional man, to see to it that the gullible are not imposed upon.