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The Measurement of Reproductivity

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

A. H. Pollard
Affiliation:
Mutual Life and Citizens' Assurance Company, Ltd.

Extract

The measurement of the rate of population growth has attracted considerable attention in scientific literature of recent years. This is, no doubt, a result of the continual decline in the birth-rate which has formed the topic of innumerable articles in the popular press and elsewhere. Several attempts have been made to obtain a simple statistical measure of the reproductivity of a population at a particular time—that is, a measure of the extent to which a population will be replacing itself if current fertility and mortality continue indefinitely. It is the aim of this paper,

  • in section 1, to discuss the simple approximate formulae that have been suggested;

  • in section 2, to discuss some more elaborate and more efficient formulae;

  • in section 3, to analyse the effect on the formulae of section 2 of a change in the proportions married at a given age;

  • in section 4, to outline the male versus female rate anomaly;

  • in section 5, to suggest a formula which avoids the anomaly; and finally,

  • in section 6, to discuss the application of these formulae to Australian population statistics.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1948

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References

page 290 note * See also C. D. Rich (1) pp. 44, 45 and 74–77, and p. 43 for formula (3).

page 311 note * Notice that M0 in section 5.9 is not the same as M0 in section 5.7.—Eds. J.I.A.

page 320 note * Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2.