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The Estimated Population of Great Britain, 1941–1971

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

F. J. C. Honey
F. J. C. Honey
Affiliation:
National Confederation of Employers’ Organisations
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Extract

(1) In a paper read before the Institute in November 1933 (J.I.A. Vol. LXV, p. 38), Mr C. D. Rich showed how to calculate the inherent rate of growth of a population by combining in a single index the current data regarding mortality and fertility. Valuable though this index is in showing the true underlying trend at a particular point of time, it cannot be adapted (nor is it intended) to show the actual future populations at any particular time.

(2) It is the purpose of the present paper to make estimates of the population of Great Britain, according to age and sex, for certain future years, and in order to do this an attempt is made to forecast the probable future course of mortality and fertility in Great Britain, in the light of the experience of the past, and such indications as there may be regarding the factors which will influence the future.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of the Institute of Actuaries , Volume 68 , Issue 3 , July 1937 , pp. 323 - 368
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1937

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References

Page 324 note * See Appendix I.

Page 331 note * Mr W. S. Hocking has pointed out that the Camberwell statistics did not require adjustment for twin-births, owing to the form in which they were supplied. The correction for the comparison on p. 332 is, however, still necessary.