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Adjusted Mortality of the British Peerage Females

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

Extract

Dr. T. N. Thiele makes the following remarks in reply to those we prefixed to his adjusted table of mortality given in the last number of this Journal:—

I must consider the constant difference of about 0·1 after the age of 50 between my adjustment and the numbers of living, which follow from the observations, but are not directly observed, and therefore not independent of each other, as the probabilities of living are, as an agreement completely satisfactory. The apparent disagreement I consider to be the result of one observation (52–53), where the observed probability of life disagrees strongly with the numbers of the other adjacent ages, and is not compensated by the following numbers disagreeing sufficiently in the opposite direction. Whence in comparing the calculated probabilities with the observed no systematical disagreement appears in these ages, as the following table shows; but if the numbers of living are compared, every other adjustment must show a disagreement of the same kind at the age of 50 as mine.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1872

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