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The Measurement of the Rate of Population Growth

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

C. D Rich
C. D Rich
Affiliation:
Provident Mutual Life Assurance Association
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Extract

The size of the population of this country is a question of considerable interest and importance. Attention has been drawn to it in recent years owing to the continued fall in the birth-rate, and it has formed the topic of innumerable articles in the popular press and elsewhere. The subject of population growth is one on which the actuary should be most qualified to judge and yet it is seldom discussed by actuaries as a whole. The reason probably is that to some extent it is cut and dried; the past history of the size and structure of the population is recorded and analysed in official publications and calls for little argument, while future estimates where they cannot be made by fairly straightforward methods are largely a matter of guesswork. The problem of the rate of population growth has been investigated from a theoretical view very fully by certain foreign writers. The purpose of this paper is to give a description of one aspect of the subject and to illustrate it by calculations based on the statistics of this country.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of the Institute of Actuaries , Volume 65 , Issue 1 , March 1934 , pp. 38 - 77
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1934

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References

page 44 note * Dublin, L. I. and Lotka, A. J.. “On the true rate of natural increase.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. xx, p. 305.Google Scholar

page 44 note † “Nuptiality, fertility and reproductivity.” Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift, 1931, p. 125.

page 45 note * “A problem in age distribution.” Phil. Mag. London and Edinburgh, 6th Series, Vol. xxI, 1911, p. 435.Google Scholar

page 46 note * The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection. Clarendon Press, 1930.Google Scholar

page 55 note * L. I. Dublin and A. J. Lotka. See footnote, p. 44.

page 56 note * Dublin, L. I. and Lotka, A. J.. “The true rate of natural increase of the population of the United States. Revision on basis of recent data.” (Metron, Vol. VIII, No. 4, p. 107.Google Scholar) In this paper the authors state that a recomputation gives ρ a value of ·0052 instead of ·0055 for 1920.

page 56 note † S. D. Wicksell. See footnote, p. 44.

page 68 note * If , then the integral of which is