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THE TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AT THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM DURING THE 1960S

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 June 2021

Juan Acosta Open the ORCID record for Juan Acosta [Opens in a new window]  and
Beatrice Cherrier
Juan Acosta*
Affiliation:
Juan Acosta, Universidad de los Andes, [email protected]
Beatrice Cherrier
Affiliation:
Beatrice Cherrier, CNRS and ENSAE, Ecole Polytechnique, IP Paris, [email protected].
*
Corresponding author. [email protected]
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Abstract

In this paper, we build on data on officials of the Federal Reserve System, oral history repositories, and hitherto underresearched archival sources to unpack the tortuous path toward crafting an institutional and intellectual space for postwar economic analysis within the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. We show that growing attention to new macroeconomic research was a reaction to both mounting external criticisms against the Fed’s decision-making process and the spread of new macroeconomic theories and econometric techniques. We argue that the rise of the number of PhD economists working at the Fed is a symptom rather than a cause of this transformation. Key to our story are a handful of economists from the Board of Governors’ Division of Research and Statistics (DRS) who did not hold a PhD but envisioned their role as going beyond mere data accumulation and got involved in large-scale macroeconometric model building. We conclude that the divide between PhD and non-PhD economists may not be fully relevant to understand both the shift in the type of economics practiced at the Fed and the uses of this knowledge in the decision-making process. Equally important was the rift between different styles of economic analysis.

Type
Articles
Information
Journal of the History of Economic Thought , Volume 43 , Issue 3 , September 2021 , pp. 323 - 349
Copyright
© The History of Economics Society, 2021

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Footnotes

We would like to thank Pedro Duarte, Roger Backhouse, Paul Dudenhefer, James Forder, Ariane Dupont-Kieffer, Kevin Hoover, Robert Hetzel, participants in the 2018 History of Recent Economics Conference and in Duke’s CHOPE seminar, and one anonymous referee for their respective comments on various versions of this paper. We are also grateful to the archivists at FRASER, the Rubinstein Library at Duke University, and the Rockefeller Archive Center for their help. The usual caveats apply.

References

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Marcussen, Martin. 2009. “Scientization of Central Banking.” In Dyson, Kenneth and Marcussen, Martin, eds., Central Banks in the Age of the Euro: Europeanization, Convergence, and Power. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 373–390.Google Scholar
McGregor, Roy, and Young, Warren. 2013. “Federal Reserve Bank Presidents as Public Intellectuals.” History of Political Economy 45 (Suppl. 1): 166–190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meltzer, Allan H. 2009. A History of the Federal Reserve. Volume 2. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Mirowski, Philip. 1989. “The Measurement without Theory Controversy: Defeating Rival Research Programs by Accusing Them of Naive Empiricism.” Economies et Sociétés 11. https://www.econbiz.de/Record/the-measurement-without-theory-controversy-defeating-rival-research-programs-by-accusing-them-of-naive-empiricism-mirowski-philip/10001339315. Accessed May 30, 2021.Google Scholar
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Morris, Frank. 1994a. “Interview by Robert Hetzel, March 10.” Available at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/archival/4927. Accessed April 19, 2021.Google Scholar
Mudge, Stephanie L., and Vauchez, Antoine. 2016. “Fielding Supranationalism: The European Central Bank as a Field Effect.” Sociological Review Monographs 64 (2): 146–169. https://doi.org/10.1002/2059-7932.12006. Accessed April 19, 2021.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parthemos, James. 1994. “Interview by Robert Hetzel, June 10.” https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/archival/4927. Accessed April 19, 2021.Google Scholar
Pierce, James. 1995. “Interview by Robert Hetzel, April 27.” https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/archival/4927. Accessed April 19, 2021.Google Scholar
Pierce, James. 1996. “Interview by Robert Hetzel, April 10.” https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/archival/4927. Accessed April 19, 2021.Google Scholar
Pinzón-Fuchs, Erich. 2017. “Economics as a ‘Tooled’ Discipline: Lawrence A. Klein and the Making of Macroeconometric Modeling, 1939–1959.” PhD thesis, Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rancan, Antonella. 2019. “Empirical Macroeconomics in a Policy Context: The Fed-MIT-Penn Model versus the St. Louis Model, 1965–75.” History of Political Economy 51 (3): 449–470.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rancan, Antonella. 2020. “The ‘Place of the Phillips Curve’ in Macroeconometric Models: The Case of the Fed Board’s Macroeconometric Model (1966–1980s).” https://ssrn.com/abstract=3517231. Accessed April 19, 2021.Google Scholar
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