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BEYOND RANDOM CAUSES: HARMONIC ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLES AT THE MOSCOW CONJUNCTURE INSTITUTE

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 April 2022

Marco P. Vianna Franco Open the ORCID record for Marco P. Vianna Franco [Opens in a new window] ,
Leonardo Costa Ribeiro Open the ORCID record for Leonardo Costa Ribeiro [Opens in a new window]  and
Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque Open the ORCID record for Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque [Opens in a new window]
Marco P. Vianna Franco
Affiliation:
Marco P. Vianna Franco: Konrad Lorenz Institute for Evolution and Cognition Research Email: [email protected].
Leonardo Costa Ribeiro
Affiliation:
Leonardo Costa Ribeiro: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque
Affiliation:
Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
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Abstract

This article proposes a historical assessment of harmonic analysis of business cycles and its ability to both decompose and build cycles, as received at the Moscow Conjuncture Institute. It traces how the Fourier transform arrived at the Institute, mediated by Henry L. Moore, in the works and actions of Albert Vainshtein, Nikolai Chetverikov, and Nikolai Kondratiev, ultimately leading to Eugen Slutsky’s well-known 1927 article “The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes.” Although the evidence does not warrant the assumption that there was an orchestrated effort at the Institute to push forward a research agenda on harmonic analysis of business cycles, it certainly unfolded as more than the summation of random events and individual incursions. Moreover, the Institute as a whole could have produced much more on this matter if it had escaped Stalinist oppression for at least a few more years.

Type
Article
Information
Journal of the History of Economic Thought , Volume 44 , Issue 3 , September 2022 , pp. 456 - 476
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the History of Economics Society

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Footnotes

The authors would like to thank Mauro Boianovsky, Paul Turner, and Justine Wood for their kind assistance with research material, as well as the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their engagement, valuable comments, and constructive suggestions on earlier versions of this article. The usual disclaimers apply.

References

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